Welcome to IAI Sports! And welcome to the 2022-23 NBA Season!
To begin the season, we will be running through each NBA team and analysing what they’ve done throughout the off-season. Each article will start off with an introduction, telling a story of how this team is where they are at today. We quickly delve into the results of the 2021-2022 NBA season, before diving into the off-season in’s and out’s.
From there, we go into depth discussing some of the important rotation pieces for the upcoming season, before finishing with a quick analysis of a team’s win totals and a full conclusion of why this team has completed these moves, what their win total will be, and my own predictions of breakout players and what to expect from this team. It’s a season preview series with the purpose of getting you up-to-date with what has happened throughout the league.
A season preview of each of the 30 teams will be released, leading up to the beginning of the NBA season. All data and information included in these articles have been gathered from Basketball Reference, NBA.com and ESPN.
Today’s team is the Atlanta Hawks – who made a big splash in the trade market to hopefully rectify what was an underwhelming 2022 season.
Introduction
The Atlanta Hawks were once merely a small stepping stone in LeBron James’ quest for championships with the Cleveland Cavaliers midway through the 2010s. The core of Jeff Teague, Al Horford, Paul Millsap and Kyle Korver slowly dissolved from a 60-win team in 2013-14 to completely missing the playoffs with a 24-win season in 2017-18. Rewarded with the 3rd overall selection in the 2018 NBA draft, they selected Luka Doncic and traded him to the Dallas Mavericks for the 6th overall selection and a 2019 1st round pick. That 6th overall selection was Trae Young.
At the time, Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors were dominating the league with elite shooting, particularly from 3-point range. Trae Young came out of college with the ability to beat any defender off the dribble with his unbelievable handles and pull up from way past the 3-point mark. Sound familiar? Not only did he have the confidence to shoot, he shot it at an elite clip. The Steph Curry comparisons came thick and fast as the Hawks traded down to get their man.
Partnered with fellow draftee Kevin Huerter and the previous season’s 19th overall selection John Collins, the Hawks began the process of acquiring young talent and developing their trio of young players. They spent the next two seasons being the cellar dwellers of the Eastern Conference, winning 29 and 20 games respectively. The 2019 off-season saw the Hawks target complementary players for their future pick-and-roll duo of Young and Collins by going after highly sought-after wings in the draft. They were able to select DeAndre Hunter 4th overall and Cam Reddish 10th overall. In 2020, the Hawks went out to improve their centre position. They were able to acquire Clint Capela from the Houston Rockets, a rim-running defensive centre, for Evan Turner and a 2020 1st round pick at the trade deadline, as well as draft Onyeka Okongwu with the 6th selection in the 2020 NBA draft. In that same off-season, they were also able to sign Bogdan Bogdanovic as a free agent.
These very pieces helped get the Hawks back to the playoffs in the 2020-21 season. With a 41-31 record, good enough to finish 5th in the Eastern Conference, they got as far as the Eastern Conference finals, getting through the New York Knicks in 5 games and the Philadelphia 76ers in 7 games. There, they lost to the eventual NBA champion Milwaukee Bucks in 6 games, but gained a lot of respect as a team to look out for in the future.
Last Season
You could call the Hawk’s past season some sort of an Eastern Conference hangover, if you will. The team started slow and got to a record of 17-25 midway through the season, before getting on a run and finishing the season 43-39. This record snuck the Hawks into the play-in tournament as the 9th seed, where they were able to beat both the Charlotte Hornets and Cleveland Cavaliers to get themselves into the playoffs as the 8th seed. They came up against one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference, the #1 seeded Miami Heat. Despite winning Game 3, they were overmatched for the majority of the series (Games 1, 2 and 4 won by the Heat by more than double-digits). For the season, they were one of the best offences in the NBA (2nd in offensive rating), but struggled to get defensive stops (26th in the league in defensive rating).
As other teams in the Eastern Conference got stronger, the Hawks remained with what worked in the previous season, maintaining the status quo with their roster. Dealing Reddish to the New York Knicks midway through the season improved things, but still struggled to beat experienced teams such as Denver, Miami, Toronto and Utah, losing the season series to all of these teams. They were able to sweep weaker Western Conference opponents like Minnesota, Oklahoma City and Sacramento, and did beat out the Memphis Grizzlies despite their stark improvement.
Off-Season
Ins:
AJ Griffin (16th pick, NBA draft)
Tyrese Martin (51st pick, NBA draft)
Dejounte Murray (trade with San Antonio Spurs)
Justin Holiday (trade with Sacramento Kings)
Vit Krejci (trade with Oklahoma City Thunder)
Aaron Holiday (free agency, originally with Phoenix Suns)
Frank Kaminsky (free agency, originally with Phoenix Suns)
Outs:
Kevin Huerter (trade to Sacramento Kings)
Danilo Gallinari (trade to San Antonio Spurs)
Delon Wright (free agent, moved to Washington Wizards)
Gorgui Dieng (free agent, moved to San Antonio Spurs)
Kevin Knox (free agent, moved to Detroit Pistons)
Skylar Mays (free agent)
Sharife Cooper (free agent)
The biggest inclusion this off-season was Dejounte Murray, who will provide a solid 3-and-D guard option alongside the polarising Trae Young. They were also able to pick up a reliable wing defender in Justin Holiday and young prospect Vit Krejci. AJ Griffin was the Hawks 1st round draft selection, who slipped to the 16th overall selection after being predicted to be selected in the lottery.
To get good players in, many have to leave. The Dejounte Murray deal got done due to the draft capital offered in return, but had to move Danilo Gallinari to match salaries in the trade. Kevin Huerter was a wanted player in Sacramento and had his starting role lost due to the Murray acquisition. Delon Wright brought consistent back-up PG minutes, but they were able to bring in a younger Aaron Holiday to fill that role.
2022-23 Roster
Starting Five
PG – Trae Young
| H: 6’1″ | W: 164lbs | Age: 23 |
| Contract: 5 yr/$172.6m | Years Pro: 4 |
Career Averages:
25.3 pts, 3.9 reb, 9.1 asts, 0.9 stls, 0.2 blks, 4.1 to, 49.6%/35.5%/87.3%, 33.6 mins
Averages Last Season:
28.4 pts, 3.7 reb, 9.7 asts, 0.9 stls, 0.1 blks, 4.0 to, 51.2%/38.2%/90.4%, 34.9 mins
2022-23 Projections:
27.3 pts, 3.9 reb, 9.4 asts, 1.0 stls, 0.2 blks, 3.9 to, 46.1%/37.8%/89.6%
The leader of the Atlanta Hawks, Trae Young is a superstar in this league. Drafted 5th overall and on-traded to the Hawks, he has embraced this franchise and become an elite scorer and playmaker. He made the NBA All-Rookie First team (2019), is a 2-time NBA All-Star (2020, 2022) and was included on the All-NBA Third Team this past season.
SG – Dejounte Murray
| H: 6’4” | W: 180lbs | Age: 25 |
| Contract: 2 yr/$34.3m | Years Pro: 5 |
Career Averages:
12.5 pts, 6.0 reb, 4.8 asts, 1.4 stls, 0.3 blks, 1.9 to, 45.5%/33.0%/77.1%, 25.8 mins
Averages Last Season:
21.1 pts, 8.3 reb, 9.2 asts, 2.0 stls, 0.3 blks, 2.6 to, 46.2%/32.7%/79.4%, 34.8 mins
2022-23 Projections:
17.0 pts, 7.1 reb, 6.8 asts, 1.7 stls, 0.3 blks, 2.1 to, 46.3%/33.1%/79.5%
A finalist last season for the Most Improved Player award, Dejounte Murray blossomed into an NBA All-Star for the San Antonio Spurs after DeMar DeRozan left the team. He improved in every single important statistical category and led the league in steals (2.0 per game). He was traded in his prime to a Hawks team wanting to contend, and away from the Spurs as they begin their rebuild.
SF - De'Andre Hunter
| H: 6’8” | W: 225lbs | Age: 24 |
| Contract: 1 yr/$9.8m (RC) | Years Pro: 3 |
Career Averages:
13.2 pts, 4.1 reb, 1.6 asts, 0.7 stls, 0.4 blks, 1.4 to, 43.4%/35.9%/78.5%, 30.7 mins
Averages Last Season:
13.4 pts, 3.3 reb, 1.3 asts, 0.7 stls, 0.4 blks, 1.3 to, 44.2%/37.9%/76.5%, 29.8 mins
2022-23 Projections:
13.8 pts, 3.9 reb, 1.6 asts, 0.8 stls, 0.4 blks, 1.3 to, 45.1%/37.2%/78.6%
Drafted with the 4th overall selection in the 2019 NBA Draft, DeAndre Hunter has struggled to stay on the court, only playing 139 games in his 3 seasons in the league (46.3 games a season). He is the prototypical 3-and-D wing that has the potential to be an elite mid-range shooter (58.2% from 2-point range in 2020-21 – 23 game sample size). The Hawks really hope that Hunter can stay injury-free this season.
PF - John Collins
| H: 6’9” | W: 235lbs | Age: 24 |
| Contract: 3 yr/$75.4m | Years Pro: 5 |
Career Averages:
16.5 pts, 8.3 reb, 1.6 asts, 0.6 stls, 1.0 blks, 1.1 to, 55.9%/37.6%/77.9%, 29.0 mins
Averages Last Season:
16.2 pts, 7.8 reb, 1.8 asts, 0.6 stls, 1.0 blks, 1.1 to, 52.6%/36.4%/79.3%, 30.8 mins
2022-23 Projections:
16.8 pts, 7.6 reb, 1.7 asts, 0.6 stls, 1.0 blks, 1.2 to, 54.4%/38.3%/80.9%
John Collins has developed into a reliable PF in the modern NBA. Able to shoot the 3-ball and has a highlight-worthy dunk package, he creates a headache for NBA defences in pick-and-roll/pop plays with Trae Young. He is also a great piece to put alongside the offensively-challenged Clint Capela. He has featured in trade rumours for the past couple of seasons.
C - Clint Capela
| H: 6’10” | W: 240lbs | Age: 28 |
| Contract: 3 yr/$61.1m | Years Pro: 8 |
Career Averages:
12.4 pts, 10.7 reb, 1.0 asts, 0.7 stls, 1.5 blks, 1.1 to, 62.4%/0.0%/52.7%, 26.8 mins
Averages Last Season:
11.1 pts, 11.9 reb, 1.2 asts, 0.7 stls, 1.3 blks, 0.6 to, 61.4%/0.0%/47.3%, 27.6 mins
2022-23 Projections:
11.8 pts, 12.0 reb, 1.1 asts, 0.7 stls, 1.4 blks, 0.8 to, 59.9%/0.0%/52.7%
Clint Capela is the typical rim-running big man, with elite rim protection from his massive wingspan (7’4”) and a lob threat on offense. He is someone who knows his role: provide elite defence and be a physical presence under the rim. This is shown with his work gathering rebounds, being the NBA rebound leader in 2021. Just don’t rely on him to hit his free throws (career percentage of 52.7%).
Backups
G - Bogdan Bogdanovic
| H: 6’6″ | W: 220lbs | Age: 29 |
| Contract: 1 yr/$18m | Years Pro: 5 |
After beginning his pro career playing in Serbia and Turkey, Bogdan Bogdanovic has transitioned into the NBA as a reliable 6th man. He brings above-average three level scoring ability, while having the size to switch and defend 1 through 3. Showing his NBA-readiness, he made the NBA Rookie All-Second team in 2018, after winning countless awards overseas.
G - Justin Holiday
| H: 6’6″ | W: 200lbs | Age: 33 |
| Contract: 1 yr/$6.3m | Years Pro: 9 |
Justin Holiday’s career has been well-travelled, having played for 7 different NBA franchises since going undrafted back in 2011. He returns to the Hawks after playing half a season with the team back in 2015-16 as a starting calibre SG that brings league-average 3-point shooting (career average of 36.5%). He was acquired from the Sacramento Kings in the Kevin Huerter trade this off-season.
F - AJ Griffin
| H: 6’6″ | W: 222lbs | Age: 18 |
| Contract: 4 yr/$17.1m (RC) | Years Pro: 0 |
AJ Griffin (son of former NBA role player Adrian Griffin) was drafted by the Atlanta Hawks with the 16th overall pick out of Duke University. He is another 3-and-D candidate that provides length and potential to space the floor. Watch the Hawks develop him slowly as they push for playoff success.
F - Jalen Johnson
| H: 6’9″ | W: 220lbs | Age: 20 |
| Contract: 3 yr/$10.2m | Years Pro: 1 |
Jalen Johnson played very few minutes in his rookie season. He spent the majority of last season with the G-League affiliate, as the Hawks hoped to turn his athletic skillset into a meaningful rotation piece of the future. In order for Johnson to become a regular rotation piece, he needs to develop his shooting and use his 6’10” wingspan to better use on the defensive end.
C - Onyeka Okongwu
| H: 6’8″ | W: 235lbs | Age: 21 |
| Contract: 2 yr/$14.5m (RC) | Years Pro: 2 |
Onyeka Okongwu is a highly-valued former lottery pick (drafted 6th overall in 2018) that hasn’t been able to get consistent minutes on the court due to injury (98 games total in 2 seasons). Undersized for a centre, he brings high energy minutes with emphasis on his high field goal percentage (67.2% for his career). Look for him to develop his defensive side with hopes of getting a full season out of him.
The Rest
11. Aaron Holiday (PG)
12. Frank Kaminsky (PF/C)
13. Vit Krejci (PG/SG)
14. Tyrese Martin (SF)
15.
T-W. Trent Forrest (SG)
T-W. Jarrett Culver (SF)
Season Projections
Sports betting agencies currently have the Atlanta Hawks win totals sitting at 45.5 wins, 7th best in the Eastern Conference. I feel this win total is a good representation of how the Hawks will do this season, not quite in the upper echelon of the Eastern Conference, but still good enough to make the playoffs.
Conclusion
The Atlanta Hawks are in win-now mode. The disappointment of only being the 8th seed last season has kicked the team into gear to make moves that transitions their focus from acquiring young talent through the draft, to selling their future to get the right pieces to partner alongside Trae Young.
The Dejounte Murray trade is an excellent one from the Hawks perspective. Yes, they did have to give up 4 future 1st round picks, but there isn’t anyone better to partner with Trae Young. Young now has the freedom to be an elite creator on the offensive side of the ball, while Murray showed how much he has improved as a passer and playmaker. Defensively, Murray has shown stark improvement through his steal numbers. This doesn’t necessarily mean he is an elite defender, but it shows he has the potential to be one. Swapping Kevin Huerter for Murray improves the Hawks defence at the guard position, which you need when you’re partnered with Young (who is, to put it nicely, a defensive liability).
Trading Huerter confirms where the Hawks are at right now. He is already an elite 3-point shooter, but with Murray, the team didn’t need another scorer coming off the bench. They needed defence. Badly. The trade to move Huerter for Justin Holiday, Maurice Harkless and a future 1st round pick makes sense. Not only do they add draft capital after trading away their future for Murray, they bring in Holiday who have shown throughout his career to be good defensive role player. Watch for him to be important to the rotation if injuries occur this season.
There are two important factors that will determine how successful the Hawks are this upcoming season. The first: how quickly can they integrate Murray into their rotation and gameplan?
How will the Hawks use Murray? After losing Delon Wright to the Washington Wizards in free agency, I wouldn’t be surprised if they did stagger Young and Murray’s PG minutes to have at least one on the court. That way, they can have an elite playmaking guard on the court at all times. This may take some time to produce results; I can see a scenario where the Hawks may semi-struggle and win 50% of their games to start the season, before making a playoff push and finishing the season off strongly. It could also work the other way where it works straight away. We’ll have to wait and see.
The second important factor is getting their oft-injured players on the court for a whole season. It could be argued that injuries were the main reason for the Hawks underwhelming season last year. Important rotation pieces such as De’Andre Hunter (54 games played last season), John Collins (also 54 games played) and Onyeka Okongwu (48 games played) all missed significant chunks of last season, while Hunter and Okongwu have yet to play more than 63 games in a season at all. In order for this team to match it with the best in the Eastern Conference, they will need a full season of development and production out of Hunter, Collins and Okongwu.
This team is good enough to match it with the best in the Eastern Conference. And they have the potential to get back to the Eastern Conference finals if all goes to plan. I’m predicting the Hawks to win 48 games this season. Murray will come in and fit like a glove, playing second fiddle to Young and being a trusted defensive presence. Don’t underestimate what they did in the trade with the Sacramento Kings, the team went on to improve their 26th defensive rating last year to bring in the NBA steals leader (Murray) and a defensive-minded rotation player (J.Holiday). Watch the Hawks become an average defensive team and improve their ceiling to become an automatic playoff team this season.