Welcome to IAI Sports! And welcome to the 2022-23 NBA Season!
To begin the season, we will be running through each NBA team and analysing what they’ve done throughout the off-season. Each article will start off with an introduction, telling a story of how this team is where they are at today. We quickly delve into the results of the 2021-2022 NBA season, before diving into the off-season in’s and out’s.
From there, we go into depth discussing some of the important rotation pieces for the upcoming season, before finishing with a quick analysis of a team’s win totals and a full conclusion of why this team has completed these moves, what their win total will be, and my own predictions of breakout players and what to expect from this team. It’s a season preview series with the purpose of getting you up-to-date with what has happened throughout the league.
A season preview of each of the 30 teams will be released, leading up to the beginning of the NBA season. All data and information included in these articles have been gathered from Basketball Reference, NBA.com and ESPN.
Today’s team is the Miami Heat – world famous for their ‘Heat Culture’ and consistent contention for Eastern Conference championships.
Introduction
The Miami Heat have been one of the most consistent franchises of the past 15 years. Ever since the franchise elevated Erik Spoelstra to become head coach at the start of 2008, the Heat have won 59.4% of their games and have missed the playoffs a total of 3 times. It’s been remarkable how successful this franchise has been, particularly after the LeBron James-Dwyane Wade-Chris Bosh era of Heat basketball, thanks to smart recruiting and drafting.
Heat Culture has been the key to them maintain this success. In a nutshell, ‘Heat Culture’ is the name given to the mentality for every person in the organisation to bring a steady effort and intensity, to strive to bring the best they can be, for the good of the organisation. This mindset, developed by Pat Riley and cultivated over time by Spoelstra, has turned free agents into wonderful rotation players, and refined superstars such as LeBron James and Dwyane Wade into the best versions of themselves.
The Heat went through a rebuild on the fly after the departure of the Big 3. The team was still very competitive, being in or just outside the playoffs. It was the way the team drafted at the back-end of the lottery that brought this Heat team sustained success. For example, bringing in Bam Adebayo, the anchor of Miami’s defence, with the 14th overall selection from the 2017 NBA draft, was a steal for the Heat. And in the 2019 draft, they were able to bring in Tyler Herro 13th overall, now one of the most gifted scorers in the league.
In that same 2019 off-season, the Heat were able to entice free agent Jimmy Butler using that ‘Heat Culture’ to join the franchise. He, alongside Adebayo and Herro, with undrafted gems like Duncan Robinson, Kendrick Nunn and Derrick Jones Jr, helped the Heat get to the 5th seed in 2020 and make an unlikely NBA Finals appearance, beating out the Indiana Pacers, Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics. They faced LeBron James, Anthony Davis and the LA Lakers, a team loaded with veteran experience and talent, and ultimately lost in 6 games. It was a great effort, especially when the team accomplished this feat during the make-shift COVID-combating bubble in Orlando.
The season following their NBA Finals appearance was a struggle. The team showed fatigue after such a long 2020 season, starting 6-12 and unable to play with the cohesion that helped them get to the Finals. Ultimately, the Heat were able to sort through their issues and get themselves back into the playoffs with a 40-32 record, but got swept by the supremely talented and eventual-champion Milwaukee Bucks in the 1st round.
Last Season
It was obvious that the Heat were very disappointed with their 2021 season. Particularly after their poor start, they had no choice but to play catch up for the rest of the year and missed out on the best playoff seed possible. PJ Tucker and Markieff Morris came in as free agents, to provide depth and defence at the PF position, while retaining players developed within the organisation like Duncan Robinson and Gabe Vincent.
The team ended up being one of the best to begin the season, reaching a 23-13 record by the midway point of the season thanks to multiple 4 and 5-game win streaks. The Heat were consistent and measured throughout the season, despite losing Kyle Lowry, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo for long stretches due to injury. They ultimately finished the season with a 53-29 record, best in the Eastern Conference and equal-3rd best in the NBA. Tyler Herro embraced his bench role, winning 6th Man of the Year, while Eric Spoelstra was once again named a finalist for the Coach of the Year award.
The Heat were able to comfortably get past an Atlanta Hawks squad in the 1st round, before taking advantage of a Philadelphia 76ers team that was still trying to incorporate James Harden, beating them in 6 games in the 2nd round. Following this, the Eastern Conference Finals matchup with the Boston Celtics was one for the ages. Despite missing Tyler Herro for the last 4 games of the series, Jimmy Butler played some of the best basketball of his career, averaging 27.4 points for the playoffs. But Jayson Tatum was even better for the Celtics, pulling the Celtics ahead in a decisive game 7 to send them to the NBA Finals. For the Heat, it was heartbreak, being so close to winning the Eastern Conference for the 2nd time in 3 seasons. They were still one of the better teams last season, ranking 12th in offence and 4th in defence.
Off-Season
Ins:
Nikola Jovic (27th pick, NBA draft)
Outs:
PJ Tucker (free agent, moved to Philadelphia 76ers)
Markieff Morris (free agent, moved to Brooklyn Nets)
The off-season was very quiet for the Heat, going into the NBA draft with the 27th pick and selecting Nikola Jovic. He is an overseas prospect with good length and the potential to be in the rotation from day one. Their priority in free agency was bringing some of their key rotation pieces back, fully guaranteeing Gabe Vincent, Max Strus and Omer Yurtseven’s contracts, while re-signing Victor Oladipo (1 year/$11m) and Dewayne Dedmon (2 years/$9m).
While they were able to bring back Oladipo and Dedmon, the depth at PF took a real hit. PJ Tucker signed a 3 year, $33.2m fully guaranteed contract with the Philadelphia 76ers, leaving the Heat after only one season to get what could be his final contract in the NBA. They also declined to bring back Markieff Morris, who only played 17 games last season due to injury.
2022-23 Roster
Starting Five
PG – Kyle Lowry
| H: 6’0″ | W: 196lbs | Age: 36 |
| Contract: 2 yr/$58m | Years Pro: 16 |
Career Averages:
14.8 pts, 4.4 reb, 6.3 asts, 1.3 stls, 0.3 blks, 2.4 to, 42.5%/36.8%/81.3%, 31.9 mins
Averages Last Season:
13.4 pts, 4.5 reb, 7.5 asts, 1.1 stls, 0.3 blks, 2.7 to, 44.0%/37.7%/85.1%, 33.9 mins
2022-23 Projections:
14.1 pts, 4.6 reb, 6.9 asts, 1.0 stls, 0.3 blks, 2.7 to, 43.0%/37.1%/85.0%
It’s amazing to think Kyle Lowry is a 6-time All-Star – he has had such a consistent career with reliable productivity for the best part of a decade. All of this came during his time in Toronto, where he helped the franchise break through and win their first ever championship in 2019. In his first season with Miami, he struggled to bring the production like he did with the Raptors, but provides a trusted source of playmaking and perimeter defence at age 36.
SG – Tyler Herro
| H: 6’5″ | W: 195lbs | Age: 22 |
| Contract: 5 yr/$125.7m | Years Pro: 3 |
Career Averages:
16.7 pts, 4.7 reb, 3.2 asts, 0.6 stls, 0.2 blks, 2.1 to, 44.0%/38.5%/85.1%, 30.3 mins
Averages Last Season:
20.7 pts, 5.0 reb, 4.0 asts, 0.7 stls, 0.1 blks, 2.6 to, 44.7%/39.9%/86.8%, 32.6 mins
2022-23 Projections:
18.7 pts, 5.1 reb, 3.8 asts, 0.7 stls, 0.2 blks, 2.3 to, 45.4%/39.7%/85.6%
After a disappointing sophomore season, Tyler Herro broke out and embraced playing as a go-to scorer coming off the bench. He was so good as a high volume shot creator that he was recognised as the 6th Man of the Year last season, playing starter-level minutes and finishing games with the other starters. His efficient 3-point shooting compliments Butler and Adebayo’s games very nicely.
SF - Max Strus
| H: 6’5″ | W: 215lbs | Age: 26 |
| Contract: 1 yr/$1.8m | Years Pro: 3 |
Career Averages:
8.8 pts, 2.2 reb, 1.1 asts, 0.4 stls, 0.2 blks, 0.6 to, 44.6%/39.1%/75.6%, 19.3 mins
Averages Last Season:
10.6 pts, 3.0 reb, 1.4 asts, 0.4 stls, 0.2 blks, 0.8 to, 44.1%/41.0%/79.2%, 23.3 mins
2022-23 Projections:
9.8 pts, 2.7 reb, 1.3 asts, 0.4 stls, 0.2 blks, 0.8 to, 44.9%/40.1%/77.6%
There’s a reason why Max Strus is in the NBA: he is one of the best 3-point shooters in the game. In two seasons coming off the Heat bench, Strus has already shown how valuable he can be as a high volume 3-point shooter. He started in 16 games during the regular season for the Heat, as well as all of the team’s playoff games.
PF - Jimmy Butler
| H: 6’7″ | W: 230lbs | Age: 32 |
| Contract: 3 yr/$131.7m | Years Pro: 11 |
Career Averages:
17.7 pts, 5.3 reb, 4.1 asts, 1.6 stls, 0.5 blks, 1.6 to, 46.0%/32.1%/84.1%, 33.1 mins
Averages Last Season:
21.4 pts, 5.9 reb, 5.5 asts, 1.6 stls, 0.5 blks, 2.1 to, 48.0%/23.3%/87.0%, 33.9 mins
2022-23 Projections:
20.6 pts, 6.1 reb, 5.8 asts, 1.7 stls, 0.5 blks, 2.1 to, 47.7%/24.7%/86.0%
Originally a 30th overall selection at the 2011 NBA draft, Jimmy Butler has had one of the more storied careers. He is a 6-time All-Star, who has been selected to five All-Defensive 2nd teams and four All-NBA Third teams during stints with the Bulls, Timberwolves, 76ers and now Heat. He leads this Heat team through his elite mid-range game and being one of the best perimeter defenders in the competition.
C - Bam Adebayo
| H: 6’9″ | W: 255lbs | Age: 25 |
| Contract: 4 yr/$134.9m | Years Pro: 5 |
Career Averages:
13.5 pts, 8.3 reb, 3.5 asts, 1.0 stls, 0.9 blks, 2.1 to, 55.8%/14.0%/74.1%, 28.2 mins
Averages Last Season:
19.1 pts, 10.1 reb, 3.4 asts, 1.4 stls, 0.8 blks, 2.6 to, 55.7%/0.0%/75.3%, 32.6 mins
2022-23 Projections:
17.1 pts, 9.0 reb, 3.9 asts, 1.2 stls, 0.8 blks, 2.4 to, 56.3%/0.0%/76.5%
Bam Adebayo is a crucial piece to the Miami Heat defence. His ability to defend wings and big men allows the Heat defence to switch without risking mismatches. Despite not being a huge shot-blocker in his career so far, his wingspan (7’3”) allows him to be a major presence as a rim protector. Is also an improving rebounder and has shown potential as a playmaking option from the post.
Backups
G - Gabe Vincent
| H: 6’3″ | W: 200lbs | Age: 26 |
| Contract: 1 yr/$1.8m | Years Pro: 3 |
Gabe Vincent is one of the undrafted gems the Heat have developed. He broke out last season as a quick backup PG, who started when Lowry went out with injury. The increase in 3-point percentage (30.9% vs 36.8% last season) to a league-average level, as well as his assist rate (3.1 per game) is cause enough for the Heat to trust him with the keys to the offence.
G - Victor Oladipo
| H: 6’4″ | W: 213lbs | Age: 30 |
| Contract: 1 yr/$11m | Years Pro: 9 |
Victor Oladipo is a former 2nd overall selection who broke out as an All-Star, Most Improved Player and selection in the All-Defensive First team in 2018. Since being selected to a 2nd All-Star game in 2019, he has played a total of 60 games in 3 seasons, including 12 in 1 ½ seasons with the Heat due to injury. If he stays healthy, Oladipo can be a quality two-way option for this team.
F - Duncan Robinson
| H: 6’7″ | W: 215lbs | Age: 28 |
| Contract: 4 yr/$74.4m | Years Pro: 4 |
Duncan Robinson broke out as an undrafted sharpshooter during the Heat’s Finals run in 2020, starting in the team and shooting the lights out (44.6% on 8.3 attempts in 2020). Since that dream run, he has struggled to maintain the efficiency, dropping to 37.2% from 3-point range on 7.9 attempts per game last season. He lost his place in the rotation during the playoffs and will need to get back to his 2020 efficiency if he going to get his starting job back.
F - Caleb Martin
| H: 6’5″ | W: 205lbs | Age: 26 |
| Contract: 3 yr/$20.4m | Years Pro: 3 |
Signed with the Miami Heat on a two-way contract at the start of last season, Caleb Martin played himself into a large contract extension and important place in the Heat rotation. He is as solid as it comes, providing shooting and perimeter defence to this Heat bench. Can also potentially start when defence is required.
C - Dewayne Dedmon
| H: 7’0″ | W: 245lbs | Age: 33 |
| Contract: 2 yr/$9m | Years Pro: 9 |
Dewayne Dedmon has worked hard to develop into a high-quality backup big man. He has always been able to grab rebounds at a good level, but has shown to be adaptable throughout his career, even showing a 3-point shot in his days with Atlanta. Signed to a 2-year extension, he brings experience from a variety of roles across his career.
The Rest
11. Omer Yurtseven (C)
12. Nikola Jovic (SF)
13. Haywood Highsmith (SF)
14. Udonis Haslem (PF)
15.
T-W. Dru Smith (SG)
T-W. Jamal Cain (SF)
Season Projections
Sports betting agencies currently have the Miami Heat win totals sitting at 49.5 wins, 4th best in the Eastern Conference. This is right about where the Heat should be sitting in relation to the rest of the contenders in the Eastern Conference. They’re a team that has remained with the status quo, but can be perennially underrated as they always seem to do well. They may not make the Eastern Conference finals again, but will surely be in the mix.
Conclusion
The Miami Heat showed last season that their 2020 Finals run wasn’t a fluke. Being able to match it with the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference finals and get the series to 7 games shows just how talented and deep this Heat team really is. Despite Jimmy Butler putting up monster numbers, they just couldn’t stop Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown when they needed to the most.
What’s exciting is that this team never were at full strength for the entirety of 2022 and hence still have room to grow internally. It felt like at times that one of Butler, Bam Adebayo, Kyle Lowry or Tyler Herro were missing games due to injury throughout the season, magnified when Herro and Lowry missed 3 and 8 games respectively in the playoffs. If this core can stay on the court at the same time, they could do some serious damage come next season.
The team will hope for that improvement internally, because the lack of moves in the off-season won’t externally improve this roster. Nikola Jovic has shown signs throughout the draft process that he will be a solid NBA player in the future, but likely not immediately. Victor Oladipo is practically a brand-new recruit (having only played 12 games for the Heat), so re-signing him gives the Heat another year of low-risk, high-reward potential if he can ever match his production of 2018.
The lack of PFs on this roster is very concerning. The team didn’t go out and find ready-made replacements for PJ Tucker and Markieff Morris, meaning that they’ll most likely start Butler as an undersized PF to begin the season. Butler’s skillset offensively definitely makes him more suited as a PF, but how will he match up against some of the bigger forwards? It also means either Duncan Robinson or Caleb Martin will be playing backup minutes behind Butler (which isn’t an ideal situation).
The other options are to bring Jovic into the line-up early in his career, bank on the development of Haywood Highsmith, or trust that the 42-year-old Udonis Haslem will turn back the clock and fill those minutes (LOL). Would it be out of the ordinary if they moved Bam Adebayo back to the Power Forward and gave starter minutes to someone like Omer Yurtseven? There are a few different ways the Heat could go, and have the flexibility to choose to match opposing line-ups.
Every season, we see opposing teams improve throughout the off-season, and as a result, rank them higher than the Heat. In a way, that has happened again, but I feel like this year it is justified. There are so many teams that are vying to put themselves in the top echelon of the Eastern Conference, that deciding seeding for the playoffs would be very tough. This Heat team only last season made it to the Eastern Conference finals. And despite losing Tucker, having a core of Butler, Lowry and Adebayo will bring a top 5 defence once again.
There are two factors that will influence how the Heat will go – the first being injuries. As mentioned earlier, if they can get Butler, Adebayo, Lowry and Herro to play 70 games each, they improve their chances of automatically getting to the playoffs and progressing further with the added team chemistry. The second factor – become a top 10 offence in the competition. Last season saw small declines from both Butler and Lowry offensively, and no outside-shot progression with Adebayo. If the Heat can reverse these trends, they can definitely build themselves into an above-average offence. The team chemistry may even help with this offence issue.
It’s obvious that the Heat won’t match their Eastern Conference-leading win totals from last season (53 wins), but they should get very close. I’m predicting the Heat will win 48 games this upcoming season, losing wins from last season due to the improvement of their Eastern Conference rivals. Butler is going to have another top-notch year, exploiting larger teams who play bigger defensively by taking on taller, opposing PFs. Bam Adebayo should have a career year on the boards, while I’m expecting Oladipo to finally put it all together and have a great comeback year. A random one to end, but watch for Yurtseven to take over as the back-up Centre and slowly push to become a starting Centre, partnered with Adebayo in the front court.