Welcome to IAI Sports! And welcome to the 2022-23 NBA Season!
To begin the season, we will be running through each NBA team and analysing what they’ve done throughout the off-season. Each article will start off with an introduction, telling a story of how this team is where they are at today. We quickly delve into the results of the 2021-2022 NBA season, before diving into the off-season in’s and out’s.
From there, we go into depth discussing some of the important rotation pieces for the upcoming season, before finishing with a quick analysis of a team’s win totals and a full conclusion of why this team has completed these moves, what their win total will be, and my own predictions of breakout players and what to expect from this team. It’s a season preview series with the purpose of getting you up-to-date with what has happened throughout the league.
A season preview of each of the 30 teams will be released, leading up to the beginning of the NBA season. All data and information included in these articles have been gathered from Basketball Reference, NBA.com and ESPN.
Today’s team is the Portland Trail Blazers – a squad hoping to return to the top of the Western Conference.
Introduction
The Portland Trail Blazers are a franchise that has modelled continuity and consistency. Between 1977 and 2003, the Blazers missed the playoffs only once (in 1982) and won a championship in 1977. The team went 21 straight seasons without missing the playoffs, where they made two NBA Finals appearances and two Western Conference Finals, led by the experience and expertise of Bill Walton, Clyde Drexler, Terry Porter and Rasheed Wallace.
The current roster has also experienced a similar level of consistency and playoff success. It was a surprise that they remained competitive for as long as they did, especially when they lost long-time franchise cornerstone, LaMarcus Aldridge, to free agency prior to the 2016 season. Led by head coach Terry Stotts, he got the most out of superstar PG Damian Lillard, as well as CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic, as the trio made 8 consecutive playoff appearances, from 2014 to 2021.
In those 8 seasons, the Trail Blazers reach the 2nd round twice (in 2014 and 2016) and had a win percentage of 57.7%. However, they could only finish as high as 3rd in the Western Conference, as this era of Trail Blazer basketball coincided with the San Antonio Spurs, Golden State Warriors and LA Lakers’ quests for championship glory. The team’s kryptonite throughout this period was the Warriors, who knocked the Trail Blazers out of the playoffs in three separate occasions (2016, 2017 and 2019).
That 2019 season was the most successful of the bunch for the Trail Blazers. Finishing 3rd in the Western Conference with a 53-29 record, they got past the Oklahoma City Thunder in the 1st round (most renowned for the 37-foot buzzer beater Damian Lillard drilled to close out the series and send the Thunder packing). They also took down the 2nd seeded Denver Nuggets in 7 games in the 2nd round – embarking on their first Western Conference Finals since 2000, against the all-powerful Warriors.
Unfortunately, the Blazers got swept by that Warriors team. And the two seasons that followed resulted in two consecutive 1st round exits to the LA Lakers and Denver Nuggets. The team just couldn’t put enough talent around Lillard and McCollum to get the Blazers deep into the playoffs consistently, resulting in the dismissal of Terry Stotts as head coach.
Last Season
The Blazers replaced Stotts with Chauncey Billups – a player’s coach who retired as recently as 2014. The hope within the franchise was that he would bring a spark to maintain the team’s 2nd-ranked offence, but improve the lacklustre 29th-ranked defence from the 2021 season. During the off-season, the team tinkered with the support pieces of their core, bringing in Norman Powell, Larry Nance Jr and Cody Zeller, to help lift the load off Lillard and McCollum’s shoulders.
In the end, the season was a disaster for the Blazers. The team started off okay, hanging around .500 and getting to an 11-11 record a quarter of the way through the season. However, Lillard was not playing at his best – internally dealing with an injury. From that point on, it was downhill for the team. They would go on a 7-game losing streak, to which the team midway through announced that Lillard would be out indefinitely with an abdominal injury. As the team continued to lose in Lillard’s absence, the front office decided to change things up and free up cap space for the upcoming off-season. They dealt Robert Covington and Norman Powell to the LA Clippers, whilst also sending co-star CJ McCollum and Larry Nance Jr to the New Orleans Pelicans.
From that point on, it was all about letting Lillard rest for next season and giving their young players such as Anfernee Simons and Nassir Little more opportunity. From that 11-11 record, the Blazers would go on to win 16 more games for the season, finishing as the 13th seed in the Western Conference with a 27-55 record. All the transactions and chaos from the 2022 season ultimately allowed the franchise to restart and build the roster from the ground up. They finished with the 27th offensive efficiency and 29th defensive efficiency.
Off-Season
Ins:
Shaedon Sharpe (7th pick, NBA draft)
Jabari Walker (57th pick, NBA draft)
Jerami Grant (trade with Detroit Pistons)
Gary Payton II (free agent, originally with Golden State Warriors)
Drew Eubanks (free agent)
Outs:
Joe Ingles (free agent, moved to Milwaukee Bucks)
Ben McLemore (free agent)
Eric Bledsoe (free agent)
Didi Louzada (free agent)
Elijah Hughes (free agent)
CJ Elleby (free agent)
The Blazers used their draft night to trade for an experienced, complimentary scorer in Jerami Grant, as well as draft wildcard prospect Shaedon Sharpe. They also brought in forward Jabari Walker with their 57th overall selection. In free agency, they retained the services of Anfernee Simons (4 yr/$100m) and Jusuf Nurkic (4 yr/$70m), while bringing in solid bench pieces in Gary Payton II (3 yr/$26.2m) and Drew Eubanks (1 yr/$2.0m). Importantly, Damian Lillard signed a max 2 yr/$121.8m extension to remain with the Blazers for the foreseeable future.
All of the players that left the Blazers were roster-fillers on expiring contracts – players not a part of the long-term plans of the Blazers going forward. Joe Ingles and Eric Bledsoe were the return pieces of last season’s trades, while Ben McLemore, Elijah Hughes and CJ Elleby couldn’t play at a high enough level to be warranted new contracts. Didi Louzada was recently waived as well.
2022-23 Roster
Starting Five
PG – Damian Lillard
| H: 6’2″ | W: 195lbs | Age: 32 |
| Contract: 5 yr/$258.7m | Years Pro: 10 |
Career Averages:
24.6 pts, 4.2 reb, 6.6 asts, 1.0 stls, 0.3 blks, 2.8 to, 43.7%/37.3%/89.3%, 36.3 mins
Averages Last Season:
24.0 pts, 4.1 reb, 7.3 asts, 0.6 stls, 0.4 blks, 2.9 to, 40.2%/32.4%/87.8%, 36.4 mins
2022-23 Projections:
26.3 pts, 4.3 reb, 7.3 asts, 0.8 stls, 0.3 blks, 2.9 to, 43.2%/36.3%/89.8%
Damian Lillard is a big-time scorer. Throughout his career, he has put the Trail Blazers on his back and led them to victories with his elite 3-point shooting and shot creativity. He can be relied on in the clutch, having two of the most iconic buzzer beaters in NBA history. Lillard is a former Rookie of the Year, a 6-time All-Star and a combined 5-time All-NBA First/Second team selection – he comes back after missing most of last season due to injury.
SG – Anfernee Simons
| H: 6’3″ | W: 181lbs | Age: 23 |
| Contract: 4 yr/$100m | Years Pro: 4 |
Career Averages:
10.2 pts, 2.2 reb, 2.0 asts, 0.4 stls, 0.1 blks, 1.1 to, 42.5%/39.2%/83.3%, 20.7 mins
Averages Last Season:
17.3 pts, 2.6 reb, 3.9 asts, 0.5 stls, 0.1 blks, 2.0 to, 44.3%/40.5%/88.8%, 29.5 mins
2022-23 Projections:
13.7 pts, 2.7 reb, 2.9 asts, 0.5 stls, 0.1 blks, 1.5 to, 44.6%/41.3%/86.5%
Anfernee Simons was one of those who benefitted from the increased playing time during last season. He was able to show an elite ability to knock down 3-point shots (40.5% on 7.8 attempts per game) as well as act as the facilitator and playmaker on offence (2.0 vs 3.9 assists per game last season). Simons re-signed with the organisation on big money, with plans to fill in the original CJ McCollum role.
SF - Nassir Little
| H: 6’5″ | W: 220lbs | Age: 22 |
| Contract: 1 yr/$4.2m (RC) | Years Pro: 3 |
Career Averages:
5.8 pts, 3.4 reb, 0.7 asts, 0.3 stls, 0.5 blks, 0.5 to, 45.5%/31.7%/72.7%, 16.7 mins
Averages Last Season:
9.8 pts, 5.6 reb, 1.3 asts, 0.6 stls, 0.9 blks, 1.0 to, 46.0%/33.1%/73.4%, 25.9 mins
2022-23 Projections:
8.2 pts, 4.6 reb, 1.1 asts, 0.5 stls, 0.7 blks, 0.8 to, 47.2%/34.4%/75.3%
Nassir Little was drafted 25th overall back in 2019 as a developmental project. In extended minutes, Little showed immense defensive potential with his large wingspan (7’2”) and the steals and block tally increases from his sophomore year to last season. He will slide in and become the 5th starter this season, and will need to improve his 3-point shooting ability in order to continue his progression into becoming a 3-and-D forward.
PF - Jerami Grant
| H: 6’8″ | W: 210lbs | Age: 28 |
| Contract: 1 yr/$21.0m | Years Pro: 8 |
Career Averages:
11.4 pts, 3.9 reb, 1.3 asts, 0.6 stls, 1.1 blks, 1.1 to, 45.2%/34.9%/72.3%, 26.0 mins
Averages Last Season:
19.2 pts, 4.1 reb, 2.4 asts, 0.9 stls, 1.0 blks, 1.8 to, 42.6%/35.8%/83.8%, 31.9 mins
2022-23 Projections:
17.2 pts, 3.9 reb, 2.2 asts, 0.7 stls, 0.9 blks, 1.6 to, 43.3%/35.8%/83.3%
Jerami Grant’s transition from being a complementary 3-and-D option for a championship team, to the #1 on the rebuilding Detroit Pistons worked out pretty well. He saw a large increase in shot attempts, while only slightly dropping in shooting efficiency and maintaining his defensive effort. Grant now has to find a balance between the two roles, as he comes to the Blazers to support Lillard.
C - Jusuf Nurkic
| H: 6’11” | W: 290lbs | Age: 28 |
| Contract: 4 yr/$70m | Years Pro: 8 |
Career Averages:
12.2 pts, 8.5 reb, 2.2 asts, 0.9 stls, 1.2 blks, 2.1 to, 50.0%/23.2%/67.2%, 23.9 mins
Averages Last Season:
15.0 pts, 11.1 reb, 2.8 asts, 1.1 stls, 0.6 blks, 2.6 to, 53.5%/26.8%/69.0%, 28.2 mins
2022-23 Projections:
13.5 pts, 9.7 reb, 2.8 asts, 1.0 stls, 0.7 blks, 2.2 to, 52.5%/30.8%/68.5%
Jusuf Nurkic has been a solid, consistent producer for the Trail Blazers. Without being outstanding, Nurkic is important for the offence to run smoothly, operating as a good interior and midrange scorer from the post and in pick-and-roll situations. He is also one of the better offensive rebounders in the competition (3.0 per game last season). Defensively, he isn’t the best rim protector, but a good reactor to accumulate steals for someone his size. Nurkic just re-signed with the ball club for the next 4 seasons.
Backups
G - Gary Payton II
| H: 6’3″ | W: 190lbs | Age: 29 |
| Contract: 3 yr/$26.3m | Years Pro: 6 |
Bounced around the league to begin his career, Gary Payton II signed on to the Warriors after being waived prior to the season. He was a crucial bench piece in the Warriors championship run, providing both an unmatched defensive intensity (1.4 steals on 17.6 minutes per game) and a high efficiency shot from the interior (61.6% from the field last season). He deservingly signed his first multi-year contract with the Blazers this past off-season.
G - Keon Johnson
| H: 6’5″ | W: 186lbs | Age: 20 |
| Contract: 3 yr/$10m (RC) | Years Pro: 1 |
A 1st round pick last season, Keon Johnson was traded to the Blazers in the Norman Powell/Robert Covington trade deadline deal last season. He got extended minutes to finish his rookie season, showing flashes of being a potential 6th man. Johnson will need to improve on his shooting efficiency (35.3% from the field, 36.0% from 3-point range) and develop playmaking skills if he wants to be a part of this Blazers rotation.
F - Josh Hart
| H: 6’5″ | W: 215lbs | Age: 27 |
| Contract: 1 yr/$13.0m | Years Pro: 5 |
Josh Hart is a very unique player. Standing 6’5”, he is one of the best rebounding wing players in the game (5.7 rebounds per game for his career, career-best of 8.0 per game) and can act as a playmaker when needed (4.1 assists per game last season). In his 13 games with the Blazers, Hart became a reliable source of scoring (19.9 points on 50.3% from the field). I expect him to transition into becoming the jack-of-all-trades 6th man for the Blazers.
F - Justise Winslow
| H: 6’6″ | W: 222lbs | Age: 26 |
| Contract: 1 yr/$4.1m | Years Pro: 7 |
A former 10th overall pick with the Miami Heat, Justise Winslow has found a rotation spot with the Blazers. He arrived to the team at the trade deadline last season, starting for this depleted Blazers squad. In the 11 games, he put up really strong rebounding stats (6.3 per game), as well as using his 6’10” wingspan to disrupt opposing offences (1.3 steals per game).
C - Drew Eubanks
| H: 6’9″ | W: 245lbs | Age: 25 |
| Contract: 1 yr/$2.0m | Years Pro: 4 |
Drew Eubanks spent the majority of his career playing backup minutes with the San Antonio Spurs, but was picked up by the Blazers after being waived at last season’s trade deadline. He started at Centre for the rest of the season, showing solid signs as an interior scorer (14.5 points per game on 64.6% from the field) and rebounder (8.5 total rebounds, including 3.0 offensive rebounds per game). He comes back to the squad to be a backup to Nurkic.
The Rest
11. Shaedon Sharpe (SG/SF)
12. Greg Brown III (PF/C)
13. Trendon Watford (PF)
14. Jabari Walker (SF/PF)
15.
T-W. Olivier Sarr (SF/PF)
T-W.
Season Projections
Sports betting agencies currently have the Portland Trail Blazers win totals sitting at 39.5 wins, placed 10th in the Western Conference. This is right where they should be, especially after so much change late last season and over the off-season. It’s going to take some time for their young players to integrate with the long-time veterans of this team. They should be one of the favourites to reach the play-in tournament, and after that, who knows? – especially with Damian Lillard on the squad.
Conclusion
The Portland Trail Blazers were able to use the chaos of last season to reset and retool around Damian Lillard. Having Lillard and Jusuf Nurkic out for the majority of last season allowed the front office to see what the likes of Anfernee Simons, Nassir Little, Keon Johnson and Justise Winslow could do in extended minutes, giving them clarity on which path they should follow.
Because the Trail Blazers could have gone one of two ways: blow it all up, trade Lillard and begin a fresh rebuild of the roster; or retool around Lillard and have another crack at playoff and (fingers crossed) championship aspirations. By re-signing Simons and Nurkic, trading for Jerami Grant, and giving Lillard a colossal 2-year extension, they’ve obviously chosen the second option.
Picking Shaedon Sharpe is a high-risk, high-reward prospect that the franchise had to take. Considering the options left at pick #7, Sharpe is the most likely to break out and be a star in this league. And that’s what Lillard needs – some talent at either of the forward spots. Sharpe won’t contribute right away, but could be a go-to scorer in the near future.
In the meanwhile, Grant will come in and give the Blazers a genuine 2nd/3rd option from the forward position. As mentioned earlier, he will need to come in and play a combination of his 3-and-D role that he performed early in his career, and the #1 option like he did in Detroit. If Grant can find his feet in this system early, the Blazers ceiling will increase immensely. In addition, picking up Gary Payton II and rewarding Drew Eubanks with another contract are two great moves that will help the Blazer bench both defensively and for depth.
We can’t really compare this roster to last year’s, just because it will look so much different and have varied aspirations. This Blazers squad has to make the most of Lillard’s prime, and must find a way to get as close to the #2 ranked offence back in 2021 and somehow improve from being the 29th ranked defence. Offensively, the return of Lillard should bump the Blazers to the middle of the league. If Simons can improve on what CJ McCollum used to bring, Grant providing a consistent source of offence from the front court, and Nurkic returning to his pre-injury levels of play, the Blazers could be a top-10 offensive unit this season.
While having Lillard, Simons and Nurkic will make the Blazers defensively-limited, they have slowly brought together some solid defensive pieces to compensate. Bringing in Grant and Gary Payton II – two above-average defensive role players, as well as developing Nassir Little and keeping Justise Winslow, gives the Blazers some options to run in line-ups if defence is needed. Don’t expect this team to be elite, but there is potential to be better than 29th overall.
Improvement from this Blazers squad is almost certain, especially looking at the current roster compared to the line-ups put out toward the end of last season. Can this team return to the playoffs? It’s going to be tough, and I don’t think they’re quite at the level of some other teams in the Western Conference. Teams such as the Timberwolves, Pelicans and (maybe) the Lakers have all improved over the off-season or brought players back from injury. I’m predicting this Blazers squad to get to 40 wins next season, and be in the fight for a play-in tournament spot. Lillard will return to play at an All-Star level, after having last season off. Anfernee Simons will continue his rapid improvement and play the combo-guard role next to Lillard to perfection. While the forward rotation of Grant, Little, Winslow and Josh Hart will help the Blazers be a top-22 defensive unit.