Welcome to IAI Sports! And welcome to the 2022-23 NBA Season!
To begin the season, we will be running through each NBA team and analysing what they’ve done throughout the off-season. Each article will start off with an introduction, telling a story of how this team is where they are at today. We quickly delve into the results of the 2021-2022 NBA season, before diving into the off-season in’s and out’s.
From there, we go into depth discussing some of the important rotation pieces for the upcoming season, before finishing with a quick analysis of a team’s win totals and a full conclusion of why this team has completed these moves, what their win total will be, and my own predictions of breakout players and what to expect from this team. It’s a season preview series with the purpose of getting you up-to-date with what has happened throughout the league.
A season preview of each of the 30 teams will be released, leading up to the beginning of the NBA season. All data and information included in these articles have been gathered from Basketball Reference, NBA.com and ESPN.
Today’s team is the Milwaukee Bucks – a former champion and consistent contender.
Introduction
The Milwaukee Bucks have had successful eras involving superstars like Kareem Abdul-Jabbar during the 1970s and Sidney Moncrief in the 1980s. The franchise had struggled to get any sort of meaningful success since Moncrief’s era, getting to one Eastern Conference finals in 2001, but not getting further than the 1st round in 7 other attempts since 1999. The franchise was in a state of perennial irrelevance – not good enough to be a contender, but not awful enough to get the access to the elite prospects available in the draft.
After an uneventful 2013 playoff run which resulted in a 1st round sweep from the Miami Heat, the Bucks had the 15th overall selection in the draft. They decided to take a punt on a skinny and athletic prospect out of Greece by the name of Giannis Antetokounmpo. In that same off-season, the Bucks decided to swap starting Point Guards with the Detroit Pistons, trading Brandon Jennings for Brandon Knight. In that deal, the Bucks were also able to acquire 2012 2nd round pick, Khris Middleton. Both Antetokounmpo and Middleton would become the dynamic duo that would lead the Bucks back to success.
It took some time for both players to develop into the stars they are today. By the 2016 season, Middleton led the team in scoring and win shares, cementing himself as an above-average 3-point shooter. While Giannis broke out as an All-Star at age 22 in 2017, blossoming into a superstar that could do anything defensively thanks to the unique combination of length and athleticism.
The coach at the time, Jason Kidd, couldn’t seem to translate the skills of Giannis and Middleton into team success. A 1st round playoff exit in 2017 and a less-than-ideal start in 2018 saw him dismissed as head coach midway through the season. The Bucks brought in former Atlanta Hawks coach, Mike Budenholzer – someone who had previously gotten deep playoff runs, but couldn’t get into the NBA finals. The change worked wonders from the get-go, transforming the Bucks into a 60-win team in 2019, while Giannis broke out again to become MVP of the league.
The team was destined to finally break through and reach the NBA finals in 2019, but lost at the final step to the Toronto Raptors in the Eastern Conference finals in 6 games. 2020 was another failed season, despite winning 56 games, where they lost in 5 games to the Miami Heat in the 2nd round. The Bucks had to make another change, trading for defensive guard, Jrue Holiday from the New Orleans Pelicans.
Holiday ended up being the last piece of the puzzle, forming a trio that helped the Bucks win 48 games in 2021 and make a deep run into the playoffs. It was a historic playoff run, getting past the Heat, Nets and Hawks to win the Eastern Conference for the first time since 1974. Up against the Phoenix Suns, the Bucks were able to break through and win their second NBA championship, winning in 6 games. Giannis deservingly won Finals MVP, remaining loyal to the franchise who gave him the chance 8 years prior.
Last Season
Fresh off winning the championship, the only significant change was to bring in Grayson Allen to provide depth at the SG position. The team were on the back foot from game 1 however, losing starting Centre Brook Lopez for all but 12 more games for the season. Like most teams after winning a championship, the Bucks’ record remained steady, with two 6-game winning streaks helping them get to 25-13 record midway through the season. In a similar fashion, another 6-game winning streak allowed the Bucks to finish with a 51-31 record, good for the 3rd best record in the Eastern Conference.
Their 1st round matchup was against the banged-up Chicago Bulls, taking care of them in 5 games very comfortably. Disaster struck in that series, however, as Khris Middleton suffered a knee sprain in Game 2, which would rule him out for the rest of the playoffs. The depleted Bucks would come up against an improving Boston Celtics in the 2nd round. It was a great contest between two of the Eastern Conference’s best teams, but the Celtics were just too strong, beating the Bucks in 7 games. They ran out of gas by Game 7, getting blown out through a lack of execution on offence, dearly missing Middleton and his outside shooting. The Bucks finished the season with the 3rd ranked offence and 15th ranked defence.
Off-Season
Ins:
MarJon Beauchamp (24th pick, NBA draft)
Hugo Besson (58th pick, NBA draft)
Joe Ingles (free agency, originally with Portland Trail Blazers)
Outs:
Rayjon Tucker (free agency)
Luca Vildoza (free agency)
It was a very quiet off-season for the Bucks, using draft night to select MarJon Beauchamp 24th overall and trading for the rights of Hugo Besson, the 58th overall selection. The only free agency acquisition was buying low on Joe Ingles, who is recovering from an ACL tear. All of their moves prioritised giving important role players extensions, such as Bobby Portis (4 yr/$49m), Pat Connaughton (3 yr/$28.5m), Jevon Carter (2 yr/$4.3m), Wesley Matthews (1 yr/$2.9m) and Serge Ibaka (1 yr/$2.9m).
At this stage, Rayjon Tucker and Luca Vildoza were the only two to leave the Bucks. Both were end-of-the-bench role players that didn’t play much at all, and both left due to unsigned contracts.
2022-23 Roster
Starting Five
PG – Jrue Holiday
| H: 6’3″ | W: 205lbs | Age: 32 |
| Contract: 2 yr/$67.1m | Years Pro: 13 |
Career Averages:
16.2 pts, 4.0 reb, 6.4 asts, 1.5 stls, 0.5 blks, 2.7 to, 46.0%/36.3%/77.6%, 33.2 mins
Averages Last Season:
18.3 pts, 4.5 reb, 6.8 asts, 1.6 stls, 0.4 blks, 2.7 to, 50.1%/41.1%/76.1%, 32.9 mins
2022-23 Projections:
18.0 pts, 4.6 reb, 6.4 asts, 1.6 stls, 0.6 blks, 2.6 to, 49.1%/39.4%/75.9%
Jrue Holiday has shown throughout his career to be one of the better defensive guards in the league. In the past 5 seasons, he has been selected to two All-Defensive First teams and two All-Defensive Second teams, as well as coming up with clutch plays throughout his first two seasons with the Bucks. His efficiency on offence has improved since playing with Giannis and Middleton, as he is a consistent third option.
SG – Grayson Allen
| H: 6’4″ | W: 198lbs | Age: 26 |
| Contract: 2 yr/$20m | Years Pro: 4 |
Career Averages:
9.4 pts, 2.6 reb, 1.5 asts, 0.6 stls, 0.2 blks, 0.8 to, 43.3%/39.3%/84.1%, 21.9 mins
Averages Last Season:
11.1 pts, 3.4 reb, 1.5 asts, 0.7 stls, 0.3 blks, 0.7 to, 44.8%/40.9%/86.5%, 27.3 mins
2022-23 Projections:
10.3 pts, 3.1 reb, 1.6 asts, 0.7 stls, 0.2 blks, 0.8 to, 44.5%/40.4%/85.7%
Grayson Allen has had a controversial beginning to his NBA career, but has developed into a reliable 3-point shooting option to be the Bucks’ fifth starter. While he won’t stand out for his defence, he has an important role as a floor spacer for Giannis to drive into the paint, or for Khris Middleton to look to score. He’s a consistent player and good option to have on the court offensively.
SF - Khris Middleton
| H: 6’7″ | W: 222lbs | Age: 31 |
| Contract: 1 yr/$37.9m | Years Pro: 10 |
Career Averages:
17.1 pts, 4.9 reb, 3.8 asts, 1.2 stls, 0.2 blks, 2.1 to, 45.8%/39.2%/88.1%, 31.8 mins
Averages Last Season:
20.1 pts, 5.4 reb, 5.4 asts, 1.2 stls, 0.3 blks, 2.9 to, 44.3%/37.3%/89.0%, 32.4 mins
2022-23 Projections:
19.6 pts, 5.5 reb, 5.2 asts, 1.1 stls, 0.3 blks, 2.7 to, 45.5%/38.4%/88.9%
Khris Middleton has come a long way since being drafted 39th overall in the 2nd round and being included as “steak knives” in the Brandon Jennings-Brandon Knight trade. Now, he is a 3-time All-Star and one of the purest shooters in the league. He was a crucial piece in the drought-breaking championship run in 2021, while the team struggled in the 2022 playoffs without him. He may miss the start of this upcoming season due to wrist surgery.
PF - Giannis Antetokounmpo
| H: 6’11” | W: 242lbs | Age: 27 |
| Contract: 3 yr/$136.9m | Years Pro: 9 |
Career Averages:
21.8 pts, 9.4 reb, 4.6 asts, 1.2 stls, 1.3 blks, 2.9 to, 53.5%/28.8%/71.8%, 32.6 mins
Averages Last Season:
29.9 pts, 11.6 reb, 5.6 asts, 1.1 stls, 1.4 blks, 3.3 to, 55.3%/29.3%/72.2%, 32.9 mins
2022-23 Projections:
28.7 pts, 11.0 reb, 5.7 asts, 1.1 stls, 1.3 blks, 3.3 to, 55.5%/30.1%/70.6%
Giannis Antetokounmpo is one of the most athletically-gifted players to ever play the game. Coming into the league as a skinny 18-year-old, his drive to be the best has allowed him to accomplish literally everything in this league: NBA champion, Finals MVP, 2-time MVP, 6-time All-Star, 4-time All-NBA First team selection, Defensive Player of the Year, 4-time All-Defensive First team selection and Most Improved Player. He’s the leader of this Bucks team, who’s finishing ability and defensive versatility is unmatched.
C - Brook Lopez
| H: 7’0″ | W: 282lbs | Age: 34 |
| Contract: 1 yr/$13.9m | Years Pro: 14 |
Career Averages:
16.4 pts, 6.2 reb, 1.4 asts, 0.6 stls, 1.8 blks, 1.7 to, 49.4%/34.1%/79.6%, 30.2 mins
Averages Last Season:
12.4 pts, 4.1 reb, 0.5 asts, 0.6 stls, 1.2 blks, 0.9 to, 46.6%/35.8%/87.0%, 22.9 mins, 13 games
2022-23 Projections:
12.2 pts, 4.7 reb, 1.0 asts, 0.6 stls, 1.5 blks, 1.0 to, 47.3%/33.4%/83.7%
Once the leader of the Nets franchise, who did most of his work on the low post, Brook Lopez quickly transformed into a high-volume 3-point shooter, adjusting with the trends of the NBA. Building this outside shot made him an important piece to the Bucks offence, spacing the floor for Giannis to attack the paint. He is an underrated defender, averaging good block numbers for his entire career. Hardly played last season due to injury.
Backups
G - George Hill
| H: 6’4″ | W: 188lbs | Age: 36 |
| Contract: 1 yr/$4.0m | Years Pro: 14 |
George Hill has provided very solid Point Guard minutes for a variety of teams throughout his 14-year career. Having transitioned from a full-time starter to a veteran backup, he served as the game manager and facilitator of offence for the Bucks’ bench last season. He did see a decline in his 3-point percentage last season – the end of his career might be nearing.
G - Jevon Carter
| H: 6’1″ | W: 200lbs | Age: 26 |
| Contract: 2 yr/$4.3m | Years Pro: 4 |
A former 2nd round pick, Jevon Carter has kept himself in the league thanks to his presence on the defensive end. Carter isn’t an elite defender, but his focus on those skills allows him to match up on some of the better opposing guards for brief spells during games. He shot remarkably well from 3-point range last season (55.8% on 2.2 attempts), albeit in a small sample size (20 games).
F - Pat Connaughton
| H: 6’5″ | W: 209lbs | Age: 29 |
| Contract: 3 yr/$28.5m | Years Pro: 7 |
Pat Connaughton has carved out a significant bench role for this Bucks’ squad. With a vastly improved 3-point shot, he’s now a trusted, high-volume shooter (39.5% on 5.7 attempts per game last season). He also has the versatility to defends guards and wing forwards. Started 19 games last season, the most for his career.
F - Wesley Matthews
| H: 6’4″ | W: 220lbs | Age: 35 |
| Contract: 1 yr/$2.9m | Years Pro: 13 |
For most of his career, Wesley Matthews has been the 5th starting option for playoff-bound teams, bringing solid perimeter defence and above-average 3-point shooting. The past two seasons has seen him become a bench rotation option that can fill-in and play starter minutes, partly due to a decline in his 3-point percentage. He’s just a reliable NBA veteran to have in the locker room.
C - Bobby Portis
| H: 6’10” | W: 250lbs | Age: 27 |
| Contract: 4 yr/$49m | Years Pro: 7 |
Bobby Portis is a very important piece to the Bucks’ rotation. He came to the franchise and brought high energy minutes with elite 3-point shooting on the Bucks’ way to a championship in 2021. Last season, he started in place of the injured Brook Lopez and brought a defensive rebounding presence alongside his 3-point shot. He has embraced the franchise and the city of Milwaukee, and was rewarded with a large contract extension.
The Rest
11. Serge Ibaka (C)
12. Jordan Nwora (SG/SF)
13. Thanasis Antetokounmpo (SF/PF)
14. MarJon Beauchamp (SG)
15. Joe Ingles (SF/PF)
T-W. AJ Green (PG)
T-W.
Season Projections
Sports betting agencies currently have the Milwaukee Bucks win totals sitting at 53.5 wins, 2nd best in the Eastern Conference and equal 2nd best in the league. This is a good representation of where this franchise and their roster is sitting in the grand scheme of the league. They were champions only a season ago and haven’t lost too many of their key pieces on that championship run. They’ll be up there with the contending teams once again.
Conclusion
Last season was one of those “what could’ve been” seasons for the Milwaukee Bucks. What if Khris Middleton didn’t go down with injury, would they have been more competitive in that Boston Celtics series in the playoffs? It’s hard to predict, but the fact that this team was 1 win away from returning to the Eastern Conference Finals shows that they’re still one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference.
The roster they have constructed is practically the exact same as last season. Bringing in Joe Ingles would have been a great move if Ingles wasn’t recovering from an ACL tear. There isn’t any timeline for his return back to playing basketball, but with 12 months being ideal for knee injuries, he would get back by late-February/March. We can’t include Ingles as a rotation option for this team, just because we don’t know if he’ll return to his pre-injury levels of play. It will be a bonus for the Bucks in the playoffs if they can get a healthy Ingles.
Injuries seemed to be the only concern for this Bucks’ team last season. Brook Lopez missing 69 regular season games highlighted the depth concerns at Centre. While acquiring Serge Ibaka didn’t explicitly help last season, he may play some important minutes this season, after returning from a back injury that knocked him out for a full season. The injury to Khris Middleton was very unfortunate timing that ultimately cost them the series with the Celtics. He may miss time to begin the season due to wrist surgery, but the Bucks will use Wesley Matthews and Pat Connaughton to cover the loss.
Last season this Bucks’ team finished 3rd in offensive rating. They’ve got a system that brings out the best in Giannis Antetokounmpo, with support pieces around him to free up space for him to drive and attack the paint. If this team wants to improve from last season, being better than a league-average defence would be the starting point. Swapping Brook Lopez for Bobby Portis in the starting line-up would be good to improve rim protection. But I seriously worry about the perimeter. Obviously, Jrue Holiday and Jevon Carter (off the bench) will bring up their perimeter defence. That being said, support pieces like George Hill and Matthews are not getting any younger, while Connaughton and Grayson Allen are not known for their defensive brilliance. It’s hard to see where the improvement will come from possibly from Lopez? We will have to see.
We could go on about all the different factors that may influence the Bucks’ upcoming season. But as long as they have one of the best players in basketball, Giannis Antetokounmpo, they’ll be up there as a contending team in the Eastern Conference, maybe even the entire league. It’s still bewildering the transformation he has undertaken to become who he is, to be one of the best players in basketball and a perennial MVP candidate. It’s going to be another massive season for him, can he lead this Bucks team back to the NBA Finals?
The Bucks stuck with the status quo this off-season, knowing that as long they have their brilliant duo of Giannis and Khris Middleton, supported by Holiday, Lopez and Portis, combined with the bench pieces of Allen, Connaughton and Matthews, they’re in the top echelon of the Eastern Conference. I’m predicting they will be up there once again, especially if they are at full strength and healthy. A win total of 53 games for the Bucks’ team is a fair and reasonable estimation of how they’ll do this upcoming season. He may not be the biggest name, but with Lopez back in the starting line-up, the defence will improve from last season. It will allow Portis to return back into his championship role as someone who terrorises opposing benches. Otherwise, it’ll should be another season of similar production for the likes of Giannis, Middleton and Holiday.