Welcome to IAI Sports! And welcome to the 2022-23 NBA Season!
To begin the season, we will be running through each NBA team and analysing what they’ve done throughout the off-season. Each article will start off with an introduction, telling a story of how this team is where they are at today. We quickly delve into the results of the 2021-2022 NBA season, before diving into the off-season in’s and out’s.
From there, we go into depth discussing some of the important rotation pieces for the upcoming season, before finishing with a quick analysis of a team’s win totals and a full conclusion of why this team has completed these moves, what their win total will be, and my own predictions of breakout players and what to expect from this team. It’s a season preview series with the purpose of getting you up-to-date with what has happened throughout the league.
A season preview of each of the 30 teams will be released, leading up to the beginning of the NBA season. All data and information included in these articles have been gathered from Basketball Reference, NBA.com and ESPN.
Today’s team is the Houston Rockets – one of the youngest teams in the NBA.
Introduction
The Houston Rockets were a Western Conference powerhouse throughout the 2010s. A trade in 2012 to bring in James Harden from the Oklahoma City Thunder would change the trajectory of the franchise and bring the Rockets to relevance. Giving Harden a starting role would turn him into an All-Star and MVP of the league, as well as turning the team into a consistent chance at the Rockets’ first championship since 1995.
Harden partnered up with many superstars in his quest for a championship. The team signed Dwight Howard for the 2014 season, with the duo getting as far as the Western Conference finals in 2015. Ultimately, they were thwarted by eventual-champion Golden State Warriors, losing the series in 5 games. As the team changed head coach from Kevin McHale to Mike D’Antoni at the end of the 2016 season, Howard made his exit and signed a $70 million contract with his hometown Atlanta Hawks.
In the off-season of 2017, the Rockets traded with the LA Clippers to acquire the services of Chris Paul. The core of Paul, Harden, Trevor Ariza and Clint Capela were able to lead the Rockets to win a league-best 65 games. Revitalised by a guard-heavy offensive system under D’Antoni, Harden won MVP, averaging 30.4 points, 5.4 rebounds and 8.8 assists per game, and led the Rockets back to the Western Conference finals, coming up against the Warriors once again. The Rockets went up 3-2, before disaster struck, losing Chris Paul to a hamstring injury. The Warriors would regroup and win the series in 7 games, and go on to win yet another championship.
The Rockets would make two more 2nd round appearances, one with Chris Paul and another with Russell Westbrook. By the start of the 2021 season, Harden was partnered with an injury-riddled John Wall, PJ Tucker and DeMarcus Cousins. The era was over, with only two Western Conference finals appearances to show for it. As the team struggled, Harden struggled with them. He refused to play, and was promptly traded to the Brooklyn Nets for three 1st round picks and four 1st round pick swaps. This led to the team embarking on a rebuild, finishing the 2021 season with a 17-55 record, and being awarded the 2nd overall selection in the 2021 NBA draft, selecting Jalen Green.
Last Season
With the Rockets’ roster spending all of the 2021 season in complete disarray, the priority for the team was to give their younger players as much game time as possible. The Rockets were able to bring in four 1st round picks in the 2021 draft, selecting Jalen Green, Josh Christopher and Usman Garuba. They were also able to acquire the draft rights of Alperen Sengun from the Oklahoma City Thunder, as well as trade for Kevin Porter Jr from the Cleveland Cavaliers midway through last season.
The season couldn’t have started any worse, with Houston going on a 15-game losing streak to start the season 1-16. They then followed with a 7-game winning streak to help bring back the poor start, to get to an 11-31 record halfway through the season. Ultimately, the team was so young and inexperienced that more bad losing streaks followed (an 8-game, 12-game and 7-game losing streak to end the season), to finish the year with a 20-62 record.
Despite the poor record, they were still able to improve their record by 5 wins compared to the previous season. And importantly, they were able to see their young prospects like Green and Sengun show that they can be quality players in this league. They were also able to see role player potential in Porter Jr and Jae’Sean Tate, who can provide combo-guard and perimeter defence respectively. The Rockets finished the season ranked 26th and 30th in offensive and defensive efficiency.
Off-Season
Ins:
Jabari Smith Jr (3rd overall, NBA draft)
Tari Eason (17th overall, NBA draft)
TyTy Washington Jr (29th overall, NBA draft)
Boban Marjanovic (trade with Dallas Mavericks)
Derrick Favors (trade with Oklahoma City Thunder)
Outs:
Christian Wood (trade to Dallas Mavericks)
John Wall (free agent, moved to LA Clippers)
Dennis Schroder (free agent, moved to Los Angeles Lakers)
David Nwaba (trade to Oklahoma City Thunder)
Prior to draft night, the Rockets completed a trade with the Dallas Mavericks, acquiring Sterling Brown, Marquese Chriss, Boban Marjanovic, Trey Burke and a late 1st round pick for Christian Wood. Brown, Chriss and Burke would be later on-traded to the Oklahoma City Thunder for Derrick Favors, Theo Maledon, Ty Jerome and Maurice Harkless. Following up their Jalen Green selection, the Rockets had another huge draft night, picking 3rd overall and selecting Jabari Smith Jr. Using the Brooklyn Nets pick acquired in the James Harden trade, they selected Tari Eason 17th overall, and using the Mavericks pick to bring in TyTy Washington Jr. The only free agency move of note was the resigning of Jae’Sean Tate to a 3 yr/$22.1m contract.
After 2 seasons on the roster, the Rockets and John Wall finally agreed to a contract buyout, paving the way for him to sign with the LA Clippers. The Rockets also declined to bring back Dennis Schroder, as he didn’t fit into the team’s rebuilding plans. With 18 players under contract and on the roster, 3 of the Thunder acquisitions from the trade are likely to be waived as well.
2022-23 Roster
Starting Five
PG – Kevin Porter Jr.
| H: 6’4″ | W: 203lbs | Age: 22 |
| Contract: 1 yr/$3.2m (RC) | Years Pro: 3 |
Career Averages:
13.7 pts, 3.9 reb, 4.7 asts, 1.0 stls, 0.3 blks, 2.7 to, 42.4%/35.2%/68.6%, 28.5 mins
Averages Last Season:
15.6 pts, 4.4 reb, 6.2 asts, 1.1 stls, 0.4 blks, 3.1 to, 41.5%/37.5%/64.2%, 31.3 mins
2022-23 Projections:
15.1 pts, 4.2 reb, 5.6 asts, 1.1 stls, 0.3 blks, 2.8 to, 43.2%/37.4%/68.2%
Kevin Porter Jr played his first full season with the Rockets after being traded from the Cleveland Cavaliers at the 2021 trade deadline. He had a rough start to the season, trying to adjust to having Jalen Green joining the back court. Despite this, he was able to show his value by putting up good counting stats and being an average 3-point shooter on 6.8 attempts per game. Porter Jr will need to continue to develop his shooting from inside the 3-point line, with his poor mid-range and free throw stats.
SG – Jalen Green
| H: 6’4″ | W: 178lbs | Age: 20 |
| Contract: 3 yr/$31.8m (RC) | Years Pro: 1 |
Career Averages:
17.3 pts, 3.4 reb, 2.6 asts, 0.7 stls, 0.3 blks, 2.0 to, 42.6%/34.3%/79.7%, 31.9 mins
Averages Last Season:
17.3 pts, 3.4 reb, 2.6 asts, 0.7 stls, 0.3 blks, 2.0 to, 42.6%/34.3%/79.7%, 31.9 mins
2022-23 Projections:
17.6 pts, 3.6 reb, 2.7 asts, 0.7 stls, 0.3 blks, 1.9 to, 44.4%/35.8%/80.5%
The 2nd overall selection in the 2021 NBA draft, Jalen Green’s career has gotten off to a good start. Known as a pure scorer from his time in college, players of his type often take a season or two to adjust to NBA level. This was the case for Green, who struggled to begin last season, before having a solid final 2 months. His potential is clear, evident in his last 9 games, where he averaged 28.1 points per game, as well as his selection in the All-Rookie First team.
SF - Jae'Sean Tate
| H: 6’4″ | W: 230lbs | Age: 26 |
| Contract: 3 yr/$22.1m | Years Pro: 2 |
Career Averages:
11.6 pts, 5.4 reb, 2.7 asts, 1.1 stls, 0.5 blks, 1.6 to, 50.1%/31.0%/70.1%, 27.7 mins
Averages Last Season:
11.8 pts, 5.4 reb, 2.8 asts, 0.9 stls, 0.5 blks, 1.8 to, 49.8%/31.2%/70.7%, 26.4 mins
2022-23 Projections:
11.6 pts, 5.3 reb, 2.8 asts, 1.0 stls, 0.5 blks, 1.7 to, 50.0%/31.6%/70.8%
Originally undrafted in 2018 and a former NBL player for the Sydney Kings, the Rockets took a flyer on Jae’Sean Tate and found themselves a gem. He brings elite perimeter defence and experience to this young Rockets team from his time overseas, and has shown, in a small sample size, that he belongs at the NBA level. If he can develop an average 3-point shot, he could become one of the best 3-and-D wings in the competition.
PF - Jabari Smith Jr.
| H: 6’10” | W: 220lbs | Age: 19 |
| Contract: 4 yr/$40.3m (RC) | Years Pro: 0 |
Career Averages:
N/A (Rookie Season)
Averages Last Season:
N/A (Rookie Season)
2022-23 Projections:
16.5 pts, 7.4 reb, 1.5 asts, 0.8 stls, 1.1 blks, 1.9 to, 44.8%/35.6%/77.0%
Highly touted prospect Jabari Smith Jr was selected in this year’s draft with the 3rd overall selection. During his sole season in college, Smith showcased an elite 3-point shot (42% on 5.5 attempts per game), as well as the potential to be a solid defender in the NBA (1.1 steals and 1.0 blocks per game in college with a 7’2” wingspan). He should fit nicely as a complimentary piece next to two ball-dominant guards in Porter Jr and Green, whilst opening up space for Sengun on the offensive end to go to work in the post.
C - Alperen Sengun
| H: 6’9″ | W: 235lbs | Age: 20 |
| Contract: 3 yr/$12.3m (RC) | Years Pro: 1 |
Career Averages:
9.6 pts, 5.5 reb, 2.6 asts, 0.8 stls, 0.9 blks, 2.0 to, 47.4%/24.8%/71.1%, 20.7 mins
Averages Last Season:
9.6 pts, 5.5 reb, 2.6 asts, 0.8 stls, 0.9 blks, 2.0 to, 47.4%/24.8%/71.1%, 20.7 mins
2022-23 Projections:
9.9 pts, 5.5 reb, 2.6 asts, 0.8 stls, 0.9 blks, 1.9 to, 48.9%/27.8%/72.8%
The Rockets see Alperen Sengun as their big man of the future, after a promising rookie season coming off the bench. In small minutes, Sengun’s per-36 numbers were very good, where he showed potential as a low post operator, both scoring and playmaking. The team were looking to bring him in slowly, but his time playing professionally in Turkey has fast-tracked his development to the point where he’s projected to start as Centre next season.
Backups
G - Josh Christopher
| H: 6’5″ | W: 215lbs | Age: 20 |
| Contract: 3 yr/$9.2m (RC) | Years Pro: 1 |
Josh Christopher was given the green light to have a go and get himself comfortable at the NBA level. In 18 minutes per game, he put up 7.8 points a game, but at a poor efficiency (44.8% from the field and 29.6% from 3-point range during his rookie season). If he is able to get minutes in this stacked rotation, his efficiency will be the main thing he’ll need to work on.
G - Garrison Matthews
| H: 6’5″ | W: 215lbs | Age: 25 |
| Contract: 2 yr/$4.0m | Years Pro: 3 |
For the first time in his career, Garrison Matthews has found a consistent role at the NBA level. After spending his first two seasons playing bench minutes for the Washington Wizards, Matthews provided vital 3-point shooting to a team that was in dire need of it (36.0% from 3-point range on 5.9 attempts per game). He started 33 games last season while Green was injured, as well as toward the end of the season.
G/F - Eric Gordon
| H: 6’3″ | W: 215lbs | Age: 33 |
| Contract: 2 yr/$40.5m | Years Pro: 14 |
One of the last remaining pieces from the James Harden-era, Eric Gordon remains a staple in the Rockets rotation. For his entire career, he has been known as a 3-point marksman, often shooting at will to keep the spacing for his teammates. Durability has been a concern for most of his career, but he has the skills to remain prominent in the NBA.
F - Tari Eason
| H: 6’8″ | W: 216lbs | Age: 21 |
| Contract: 4 yr/$16.3m (RC) | Years Pro: 0 |
The exciting skillset that got Tari Eason drafted 17th overall is his defence. His athleticism and instinct was what stood out at the collegiate level, which translated into great counting stats for a 6’8” combo forward (1.9 steals and 1.1 blocks per game last season). He will need to improve his shooting, particularly if he is to become a 3-and-D prospect in this league. Watch for him to get plenty of minutes throughout the season, with the potential to start.
C - Derrick Favors
| H: 6’9″ | W: 265lbs | Age: 31 |
| Contract: 1 yr/$10.2m | Years Pro: 12 |
Derrick Favors brings a wealth of experience as a former starting PF/C. He has shown to be a consistent rebounder, as well as a good rim protector and interior scorer. Been with the rebuilding Thunder, just got traded to the Rockets, where he’ll be a mentor to Alperen Sengun and come off the bench.
The Rest
11. Usman Garuba (PF)
12. Bruno Fernando (PF)
13. Daishen Mix (PG)
14. TyTy Washington Jr (PG)
15. Kenyon Martin Jr (PF)
16. Boban Marjanovic (C)
T-W. Trevor Hudgins (PG)
T.W.
Season Projections
Sports betting agencies currently have the Houston Rockets wins totals sitting at 23.5 wins, tied with the San Antonio Spurs, Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder for the worst record in the NBA. For a team mid-rebuild, this seems like a sensible projection. As they develop prospects for their offensive skillsets, the team will struggle defensively as a result. The win total projection is right where I expect this team to be.
Conclusion
As has been made clear, the Houston Rockets are right in the middle of a rebuild. It’s obvious that the focus is to maximise talent and try and find the right combination of players that will get them back in the mix for playoffs. Their record of 20-62 last season could have been a lot worse, if the team did not go on a 7-game win streak.
In a draft with 3 A+ prospects, it’s great the Rockets were able to secure one of them. While the franchise would have loved Paolo Banchero to fall to them at #3, Jabari Smith Jr is no slouch either. Gaining an already-developed elite 3-point shooter is massive for their line-up. It allows the Rockets to develop him in one of two ways – as a go-to scorer alongside Jalen Green, or as a complementary 3-and-D forward to other higher usage players such as Green, Kevin Porter Jr or Alperen Sengun. He gives the Rockets flexibility in the way they can construct their roster and will be a key piece throughout the rebuild.
Also important to the Rockets and their future success was the Tari Eason draft selection and re-signing Jae’Sean Tate. As mentioned earlier, the Rockets finished with the league-worst defensive efficiency, as they focused solely on developing the offensive skillsets of Green and Porter Jr. If the team are going to stick with the aforementioned back court, Tate and Eason can and will need to carry the load defensively on the perimeter. Both have the chance to be long-term contributors to this team, but both need to develop reliable 3-point shots in order for this team to progress further. Even a league-average level would be enough to help build an effective Rockets offence.
The Rockets have done an excellent job swapping out their championship-winning stars for young talent. In two NBA drafts, they’ve brought in an impressive seven 1st round picks, as well as Porter Jr, who was drafted the season prior. At this stage, the core of the Rockets consists of Green, Smith Jr and Sengun, with Porter Jr a possibility to be included as well.
Green ended the 2022 season in great form, but his 9-game explosion didn’t manage to garner any wins. As it usually is for developing NBA scorers, Green will need to find a way to translate his scoring ability into team victories. For Smith Jr’s rookie season, he’ll be pursuing regularity and getting comfortable shooting and defending at NBA level. It’ll be interesting to see if the 42% shooting from 3-point range will last the distance in this league – especially seeing he only played one collegiate season. And how will Sengun handle being a full-time starter? The Rockets have cleared the way for him to play 30 minutes a night minimum, where they will have to make the most of his ever-growing skillset and incorporate him more on offence.
Crucial for the Rockets this season is finding out what they have acquired in the likes of Josh Christopher, Usman Garuba, Tari Eason and TyTy Washington Jr. All are late 1st round selections, and all have the potential to be good players in this league. It’ll be up to the Rockets to decide how each of them fit around the core and see if they can play in the NBA. Christopher and Garuba both spent time in the G-League last season, so it’s going to be important for both of their careers to break into this Rockets rotation and play at a consistently high level. Despite Eason and Washington Jr both being rookies, they will need to show their worth from day one.
It’s going to be another season of losses on the scoreboard for the Rockets, but development behind the scenes for their young stars of the future. What does concerns me though is the sheer youth of this team – most not necessarily being top-end talent. Their roster is full of late 1st round selections, players who have potential to be good NBA players, but with lower skill ceilings and in need of more time to develop. This is totally fine, but will mean this team may not be competing for the next 2-3 years. I’m predicting this team to win 22 games this upcoming season, where Green will start being a more consistent high-level scorer and Sengun will thrive in his starting role.