Welcome to IAI Sports! And welcome to the 2022-23 NBA Season!
To begin the season, we will be running through each NBA team and analysing what they’ve done throughout the off-season. Each article will start off with an introduction, telling a story of how this team is where they are at today. We quickly delve into the results of the 2021-2022 NBA season, before diving into the off-season in’s and out’s.
From there, we go into depth discussing some of the important rotation pieces for the upcoming season, before finishing with a quick analysis of a team’s win totals and a full conclusion of why this team has completed these moves, what their win total will be, and my own predictions of breakout players and what to expect from this team. It’s a season preview series with the purpose of getting you up-to-date with what has happened throughout the league.
A season preview of each of the 30 teams will be released, leading up to the beginning of the NBA season. All data and information included in these articles have been gathered from Basketball Reference, NBA.com and ESPN.
Today’s team is the Denver Nuggets – a team looking to bounce back with the addition of some handy starters.
Introduction
The Denver Nuggets squads of the late-2000s to early 2010s were very unlucky.
The team, under the tutelage of head coach George Karl, made 10 consecutive NBA playoff appearances from 2004 to 2013, led by former 3rd overall selection Carmelo Anthony. He was partnered by Allen Iverson, Chauncy Billups, Andre Miller, Marcus Camby and Nene to win 60% of their regular season matches during that 10-year stretch. However, because the Western Conference at the time was so strong, the team only made it past the 1st round once, in 2009. This led to Karl moving on and many of the key contributors to this playoff success retiring or moving to greener pastures.
The current formation of the team wouldn’t be where it is now if not for the 2014 draft. The Nuggets originally had the 11th overall selection, but traded back with the Chicago Bulls to acquire the draft rights of Gary Harris and Jusuf Nurkic. These two would be important pieces for the Nuggets rebuild. However, their most important selection was in the 2nd round (41st overall), where they selected Serbian big man Nikola Jokic.
As the youth movement swept through Denver, they prioritised getting game time into their young prospects, as well as emphasising drafting players with high upside. In the 2015 NBA draft, the Nuggets used their 7th overall selection on Emmanuel Mudiay, while following it up in the 2016 draft to select Jamal Murray – also with the 7th overall selection. A key point in the building of this roster was recognising that Jokic would be the franchise cornerstone of the team. When the team traded Nurkic to the Portland Trail Blazers at the trade deadline of the 2017 season, it would be the combination of Jokic and Murray that would led the Nuggets back to the playoffs.
Slowly the Nuggets began their final assembly, selecting small forward, Michael Porter Jr 14th overall in 2018. At the 2021 trade deadline, brought in Aaron Gordon from the Orlando Magic, to improve the team’s forward stocks. The trade cost the Nuggets Gary Harris, RJ Hampton and a future 1st round pick. These acquisitions brought good results, as they returned back to the playoffs in 2019, making the Western Conference finals in 2020 and getting to the 2nd round in 2019 and 2021. This can be attributed to the all-round elite play from Jokic (so good was Jokic that he won MVP in 2021) and the consistent year-to-year improvement from Murray.
Last Season
Just prior to the 2021 playoffs, Jamal Murray tore his ACL in a matchup against the Golden State Warriors. It was a huge loss, as Murray went on to miss the 2021 playoffs, as well as the entire 2022 season. The Nuggets would be down their starting point guard, and be far from full strength for the 2022 season. After making the move to acquire Aaron Gordon at the previous season’s trade deadline, the Nuggets weren’t in a position to make any splashy moves. They had to stick with the status quo.
By the middle of January, the team had been hovering around .500 to be 23-21. Michael Porter Jr had been ruled out for the season, and things weren’t looking promising. A 4, 5 and 6 game win streak in the second half of the season changed the team’s fortunes, allowing them to reach a record of 48-34, good enough for 6th in the Western Conference. This team wouldn’t have made the playoffs once again if it weren’t for the performances of MVP, Nikola Jokic. In the absence of Murray, Jokic put up another ridiculous stat line of averages (27.1 pts, 13.8 reb and 7.9 asts) and showed why he deserved to be a 2-time MVP of the league. His importance to the Nuggets can be shown through his win shares, where he finished 1st with 15.2. The next best was Giannis Antetokounmpo with 12.9. He was the crucial piece to get the Nuggets back to the playoffs.
In the first round, the Nuggets came up against a rejuvenated and experienced Golden State Warriors team. From the start, the Nuggets couldn’t keep up, due in part to Murray and Porter Jr, as well as the commitment and potency of the Warriors, ultimately losing the series in 5 games. Despite the disappointment of losing in the first round, the Nuggets have cause for confidence, accomplishing what they did without their #2 and #3 players. They were still able to maintain the 6th best offence, but struggled on the defensive end, finishing 15th in defensive rating.
Off-Season
Ins:
Christian Braun (21st pick, NBA draft)
Peyton Watson (30th pick, NBA draft)
Ismael Kamagate (46th pick, NBA draft)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (trade with Washington Wizards)
Ish Smith (trade with Washington Wizards)
DeAndre Jordan (free agency, originally with Philadelphia 76ers)
Bruce Brown (free agency, originally with Brooklyn Nets)
Outs:
JaMychal Green (trade to Oklahoma City)
Monte Morris (trade to Washington Wizards)
Will Barton (trade to Washington Wizards)
Austin Rivers (free agency, moved to Minnesota Timberwolves)
Bryn Forbes (free agency, moved to Minnesota Timberwolves)
DeMarcus Cousins (free agency)
Facundo Campazzo (free agency)
Draft night for the Nuggets involved selecting two late 1st rounders in Christian Braun and Peyton Watson. Both won’t be required to contribute straight away, but will bide their time and hopefully become meaningful rotation players in the future. They picked up Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Ish Smith from the Wizards, and picked up DeAndre Jordan and Bruce Brown in free agency. The biggest news would be the 5 yr/$270m contract extension Nikola Jokic signed, the biggest contract in NBA history (to date). It is well deserved, especially after having 2 consecutive MVP seasons, carrying the team into the playoffs.
The purpose of trading JaMychal Green to the Oklahoma City Thunder on draft night was to dump his $8.2m salary. Moving Monte Morris and Will Barton to the Wizards rids the Nuggets of two offensively gifted players who lack that same edge defensively. Austin Rivers was a key piece of the Nuggets rotation, whose defensive presence will be missed, while Bryn Forbes was another the Nuggets were happy to let go. DeMarcus Cousins and Facundo Campazzo were not offered contracts for next season either.
2022-23 Roster
Starting Five
PG – Jamal Murray
| H: 6’3” | W: 215lbs | Age: 25 |
| Contract: 3 yr/$101.5m | Years Pro: 5 |
Career Averages:
16.3 pts, 3.6 reb, 3.8 asts, 1.0 stls, 0.3 blks, 2.0 to, 44.6%/36.7%/87.8%, 30.1 mins
Averages Last Season:
DNP (ACL injury)
2022-23 Projections:
18.3 pts, 3.6 reb, 4.2 asts, 1.0 stls, 0.3 blks, 1.9 to, 46.3%/40.9%/86.1%
Jamal Murray missed all of last season due to an ACL tear towards the end of the 2020-21 season. Prior to the injury, he was ascending to become a very solid 2nd option for this Nuggets line-up. Many NBA fans remember how he balled out in the 2020 playoffs (averaging 26.6 pts and 6.6 asts on 50.5%/45.3%/89.7% shooting splits), showing the immense potential he has to be a top 5 PG in this league. A healthy season from him will directly impact how far the Nuggets get.
SG – Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
| H: 6’5″ | W: 205lbs | Age: 29 |
| Contract: 3 yr/$44m | Years Pro: 9 |
Career Averages:
11.6 pts, 3.1 reb, 1.7 asts, 1.1 stls, 0.2 blks, 1.0 to, 42.1%/36.0%/81.3%, 29.2 mins
Averages Last Season:
13.2 pts, 3.4 reb, 1.9 asts, 1.1 stls, 0.3 blks, 1.3 to, 43.5%/39.0%/89.0%, 30.2 mins
2022-23 Projections:
12.1 pts, 3.2 reb, 1.9 asts, 1.0 stls, 0.3 blks, 1.2 to, 43.7%/39.2%/86.8%
In the days of spacing the floor, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is a great glue guy for any NBA rotation. He provides above-average 3-point shooting and is capable of defending the perimeter at a high level. He has been remarkably durable throughout his career and has started every season bar his rookie year. He will round out the Nuggets starting core and be a great catch-and-shoot guy to support the Nuggets’ superstars.
SF - Michael Porter Jr
| H: 6’10” | W: 218lbs | Age: 24 |
| Contract: 5 yr/$172.6m | Years Pro: 3 |
Career Averages:
14.1 pts, 6.1 reb, 1.1 asts, 0.6 stls, 0.6 blks, 1.9 to, 51.8%/41.9%/79.5%, 24.6 mins
Averages Last Season:
9.9 pts, 6.6 reb, 1.9 asts, 1.1 stls, 0.2 blks, 1.3 to, 35.9%/20.8%/55.6%, 29.4 mins
2022-23 Projections:
14.9 pts, 6.3 reb, 1.4 asts, 0.7 stls, 0.7 blks, 1.2 to, 51.0%/40.4%/77.8%
Something was up with Michael Porter Jr last season. As seen by his shooting splits early in the season, he shot awfully and couldn’t backup a breakout year last season. The team ultimately shut him down 9 games in after it was revealed another back injury was hindering his play – he would go on to miss the rest of the 2022 season. The Nuggets really need him to be back at his best, as he is a key piece to this rotation and is paid handsomely for it (5 years, $172.6m still owed to him). Who knows how he’ll go, and if he can avoid the back injuries that have plagued his career thus far.
PF - Aaron Gordon
| H: 6’8″ | W: 235lbs | Age: 26 |
| Contract: 3 yr/$63.8m | Years Pro: 8 |
Career Averages:
13.0 pts, 6.3 reb, 2.5 asts, 0.7 stls, 0.6 blks, 1.5 to, 46.0%/32.3%/70.2%, 28.9 mins
Averages Last Season:
15.0 pts, 5.9 reb, 2.5 asts, 0.6 stls, 0.6 blks, 1.8 to, 52.0%/33.5%/74.3%, 31.7 mins
2022-23 Projections:
14.1 pts, 5.9 reb, 2.8 asts, 0.7 stls, 0.6 blks, 1.8 to, 50.0%/33.5%/72.0%
Aaron Gordon has blossomed into an efficient interior scorer since his move to Denver. Just looking at his field goal percentage (46% for his career vs 52% last season and 50% the season before that), playing next to a magician like Nikola Jokic has given him better opportunities to score. These numbers were also backed up by a slight increase in his 3-point percentage.
C - Nikola Jokic
| H: 6’11” | W: 284lbs | Age: 27 |
| Contract: 6 yr/$302.5m | Years Pro: 7 |
Career Averages:
19.7 pts, 10.4 reb, 6.2 asts, 1.2 stls, 0.7 blks, 2.8 to, 54.2%/34.5%/83.0%, 30.4 mins
Averages Last Season:
27.1 pts, 13.8 reb, 7.9 asts, 1.5 stls, 0.9 blks, 3.8 to, 58.3%/33.7%/81.0%, 33.5 mins
2022-23 Projections:
24.6 pts, 12.0 reb, 7.4 asts, 1.3 stls, 0.7 blks, 3.3 to, 57.2%/35.0%/82.7%
Jokic. Need I say more? The unlikeliest of superstars, Nikola Jokic is considered top 5 in the world for good reason. His ability to shoot at all three levels, facilitate offence both in the post and on the break at 6’11” and 280lbs is truly unique. There has never been a superstar enter the league with his dimensions and skillset. He is the reigning 2-time MVP and been to the past 4 All-Star games. Has also been selected to 3 All-NBA First teams. All from being a 2nd round pick. Unbelieveable!
Backups
G - Ish Smith
| H: 6’0″ | W: 175lbs | Age: 34 |
| Contract: 1 yr/$4.7m | Years Pro: 12 |
Ish Smith was dealt in the off-season from Washington to Denver and should slot in straight away as the backup PG on this Nuggets roster. With the trade, Smith will be suiting up for his 13th team, a new NBA record. Despite being a journeyman, he has always been a quick guard that can come off the bench and run the offence with ease.
G - Bones Hyland
| H: 6’3″ | W: 173lbs | Age: 21 |
| Contract: 3 yr/$8.7m (RC) | Years Pro: 1 |
Picked up with the 26th pick in the 2021 NBA draft, Bones Hyland came off the bench and played meaningful minutes down the stretch. He has shown already that he has the potential to be an elite 3-point shooter (36.6% on 5.2 attempts per game) and scorer (10.1 pts on 19 mins a game). Look for him to develop his playmaking in an extended role next season.
F - Bruce Brown
| H: 6’4″ | W: 202lbs | Age: 26 |
| Contract: 2 yr/$13.3m | Years Pro: 4 |
Bruce Brown transformed himself into a multi-positional defender in his time with the Brooklyn Nets. Out of necessity, Brown was able to play a multitude of roles, often filling into the starting line-up when players were missing. He’s valuable to any playoff team due to his 3-and-D game (40.4% from 3-point range with 1.1 steals per game) and ability to play impactful minutes without having to have the ball in his hands.
F - Jeff Green
| H: 6’8″ | W: 235lbs | Age: 36 |
| Contract: 1 yr/$4.5m | Years Pro: 14 |
An NBA veteran who has played for 11 different teams, Jeff Green arrived to the Nuggets and played the starting SF role in the absence of Michael Porter Jr. He performed admirably, seeing a boost in his field goal percentage last season. With new pieces on the Nuggets bench, he will be an important piece for team cohesion and getting everyone on the same page.
C - DeAndre Jordan
| H: 6’11” | W: 235lbs | Age: 34 |
| Contract: 1 yr/$2.9m | Years Pro: 14 |
Once a staple of the Lob City Clippers, DeAndre Jordan has bounced around the league these past couple of seasons. He arrives in Denver as a more-than-capable back up to Nikola Jokic, who could start if Jokic did miss time. A former 2-time NBA Rebounding leader and 2-time All-Defensive First team, he will bring rim protection and efficient scoring under the basket in small minutes.
The Rest
11. Zeke Nnaji (PF/C)
12. Vlatko Cancar (PF)
13. Davon Reed (SG)
14. Christian Braun (SG)
15. Peyton Watson (SF)
T-W. Collin Gillespie (PG)
T-W. Jack White (SF)
Season Projections
Sports betting agencies currently have the Denver Nuggets win totals sitting at 50.5 wins, 4th best in the Western Conference. On paper, considering the additions they’re going to be bringing back to this team, 50-plus wins could definitely be possible. It’ll all depend on how well Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr recover from their respective injuries.
Conclusion
The Denver Nuggets are built to be a contender in the Western Conference, and after a year where they missed Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr (in terms of reaching his potential), this team is in the top echelon of Western Conference contenders. What Nikola Jokic did last season was nothing short of astonishing, and for him to get this team to 48 wins and an automatic playoff spot is something to be proud of. It was just bad luck that they came up against the eventual champions, who know a thing or two about winning.
It would be easy for me to say that this team should smash last year’s win totals, especially with Murray and Porter Jr expected to be back to full health. A starting line-up consisting of these two alongside Jokic, Aaron Gordon and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is a great core, full of efficient shooting, athleticism and playmaking. However, if this team does manage to match last year’s 48 wins, that would be a great achievement. Let me explain:
The top of the Western Conference is as jam-packed as it has ever been. It’s eerily similar to the late 2000s, where 8 teams could have easily gone on to be the Western Conference champions. The Nuggets will once again be stuck in this logjam of teams battling it out for the ultimate glory. What the Nuggets need to do to separate themselves from the rest of the pack is an improvement on defence. Bringing in Caldwell-Pope will help, but will that alone catapult their ranking to top 10? I don’t think so. Murray is an average defender, while Porter Jr is known as a liability on that end of the floor. I just don’t see where the internal improvement on defence will come from, unless it comes from Aaron Gordon.
Also, how will Murray and Porter Jr fit back into the rotation. I don’t have any doubts of Murray’s ability or durability; he should be good to go by the start of next season after 18 months’ recovery.
However, I’m seriously concerned about Porter Jr’s durability. He skipped his entire collegiate career due to a back injury, which also lost him his rookie season. It’s scary to have 3 seasons of basketball missed due to a reoccurring injury at such a young age. When Porter Jr is playing at his best, he is one of the purest shots in the NBA and is the perfect piece to partner with Murray and Jokic. The team gave Porter Jr a max rookie extension at the end of 2021, so they will definitely be hoping that he can return to his 2021 level of play. We cannot depend on it happening, however.
The question to define the Nuggets season will be: can they get their core of starters consistently on the court at the same time? If they do, they have every chance to be a top 4 team in the Western Conference. That being said, I’m predicting that the Nuggets will win 48 games this upcoming season. Having Murray and Jokic back will do wonders for their offence, regardless of if Porter Jr returns. At their peak, this duo would lead the Nuggets to a top 5 offensive ranking. Adding the slashing ability of Gordon and floor spacing in Caldwell-Pope, will create headaches for opposing defences. The key for the Nuggets to get past this 48-win total is becoming a top 10 defensive unit. And if Porter Jr can play at least 50% of games this year, that would be a great success.