Welcome to IAI Sports! And welcome to the 2022-23 NBA Season!
To begin the season, we will be running through each NBA team and analysing what they’ve done throughout the off-season. Each article will start off with an introduction, telling a story of how this team is where they are at today. We quickly delve into the results of the 2021-2022 NBA season, before diving into the off-season in’s and out’s.
From there, we go into depth discussing some of the important rotation pieces for the upcoming season, before finishing with a quick analysis of a team’s win totals and a full conclusion of why this team has completed these moves, what their win total will be, and my own predictions of breakout players and what to expect from this team. It’s a season preview series with the purpose of getting you up-to-date with what has happened throughout the league.
A season preview of each of the 30 teams will be released, leading up to the beginning of the NBA season. All data and information included in these articles have been gathered from Basketball Reference, NBA.com and ESPN.
Today’s team is the Dallas Mavericks – a Western Conference Finalist from last season.
Introduction
For over 20 seasons, the Dallas Mavericks were Dirk Nowitzki’s team. All the moves and acquisitions were made in recognition of him being the face of the franchise. To which he delivered, winning Dallas their first ever championship in 2011. Four of the next five seasons following their championship run resulted in 1st round playoff exits, before missing the playoffs entirely in 2017. As Nowitzki got older and lost more and more of his mobility, the team needed to move in a different direction, refresh their franchise and start building for the future.
The 2018 NBA draft will go down as one of the more important days in Mavericks’ history. After finishing the previous season with a 24-58 record, the Mavericks originally had the 5th overall pick, selecting Trae Young. However, the team had a different prospect in mind. In a draft-night trade with the Atlanta Hawks, they swapped selections, acquiring the rights to the 3rd overall selection. That pick ended up bringing European phenom Luka Doncic to the ball club. In that same draft, they also used the 33rd pick to draft Jalen Brunson.
A lot of generalisations were made throughout the pre-draft process in regards to Doncic. As he didn’t play in college, it was hard to predict how his game would translate once he arrived in the United States. If we flash forward to today, Doncic is one of the best scorers in the NBA and has the potential to be one of the best to ever pick up a basketball due to his basketball IQ and outstanding offensive efficiency. The Mavericks trusted another European prospect like they did with Nowitzki all those years ago, and so far, he has shown to be the best to come out of the 2018 NBA draft.
Once Nowitzki retired at the end of the 2019 season, the torch had well and truly been passed onto Doncic, especially after he won Rookie of the Year in that same season. Many Mavs fans hoped that the duo of Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis, partnered with Tim Hardaway Jr, Dorian Finney-Smith and Maxi Kleber, would be enough for the team to be back to contending at the top of the Western Conference. However, consecutive 1st round exits to the LA Clippers in 2020 and 2021 made it clear that more work with personnel still needed to be done.
Last Season
These personnel changes did occur after the 2021 season’s conclusion. Long-time head coach Rick Carlisle moved on from the franchise, bringing in former Maverick point guard Jason Kidd. The team struggled to begin the year, before winning 10 of 11 games to get to a 26-19 record by the middle of January. Despite this, the Mavericks were still not happy with how the team were playing, so made the decision to move Kristaps Porzingis to the Washington Wizards for Davis Bertans and Spencer Dinwiddie at the trade deadline.
It was a gutsy move to trade away Porzingis, who was once considered a cornerstone piece of the Mavericks franchise. However, the results posted over the 2nd half of the season proved that the Mavericks’ front office clearly made the right move. The team went 19-7 after the trade went through, giving themselves a 52-30 record to finish the season; good enough for 4th in the Western Conference.
The team went on an amazing run in the playoffs. They first got through the Utah Jazz in 6 games, before upsetting the #1 seeded Phoenix Suns in 7 games, which included a blow-out game 7 victory. However, they met their match against the Golden State Warriors, losing in 5 games and being eliminated in the Western Conference Finals. Regardless of the disappointment of missing the NBA Finals once again, the fact that the Mavericks got as far as they did in Kidd’s first season as coach shows that their belief in their system is justified; especially when you’re in the top third of the league in net rating (15th in offensive and 6th in defensive rating).
Off-Season
Ins:
Jaden Hardy (37th pick, NBA draft)
Christian Wood (trade with Houston Rockets)
JaVale McGee (free agency, originally with Phoenix Suns)
Outs:
Sterling Brown (trade to Houston Rockets)
Marquese Chriss (trade to Houston Rockets)
Boban Marjanovic (trade to Houston Rockets)
Trey Burke (trade to Houston Rockets)
Jalen Brunson (free agent, moved to New York Knicks)
One of the first trades of the off-season was the Dallas Mavericks bringing in Christian Wood for a bunch of end-of-the-bench rotation players. He has the talent to play in this league, but has struggled with behavioural and commitment issues throughout his NBA career thus far. He will be in battle for the starting centre job with free agency acquisition JaVale McGee, the ultimate rim-running per-minute monster. Because the Mavericks did trade their 1st round pick in the Christian Wood deal, the team traded back into the draft for the 33rd overall selection, drafting former high school phenom Jaden Hardy.
The biggest loss for the Mavericks was letting Jalen Brunson walk in unrestricted free agency to the New York Knicks. He was arguably the reason they got through against the Jazz, where he broke out as an elite scorer in the midrange in the absence of Doncic. That scoring punch will be sorely missed. As mentioned, in order to get Christian Wood, many of the end-of-bench players of the Mavericks were traded to the Rockets. While most were roster fillers for the end of the season, the team will miss Boban Marjanovic, as he was a great locker room presence and ultimate teammate.
2022-23 Roster
Starting Five
PG – Luka Doncic
| H: 6’7″ | W: 230lbs | Age: 23 |
| Contract: 5 yr/$207.1m | Years Pro: 4 |
Career Averages:
26.4 pts, 8.5 reb, 8.0 asts, 1.1 stls, 0.4 blks, 4.1 to, 45.7%/33.7%/73.7%, 33.8 mins
Averages Last Season:
28.4 pts, 9.1 reb, 8.7 asts, 1.2 stls, 0.6 blks, 4.5 to, 45.7%/35.3%/74.4%, 35.4 mins
2022-23 Projections:
28.1 pts, 8.8 reb, 8.6 asts, 1.1 stls, 0.6 blks, 4.1 to, 47.4%/35.8%/75.0%
Luka Doncic has established himself as one of the league’s premiere scorers. Originally from Slovenia, Doncic played 3 seasons of EuroLeague basketball for Real Madrid, where he won MVP and a championship in his final season with the team. Since being drafted into the NBA, he has won Rookie of the Year and been selected to 3 All-Star games and 3 All-NBA 1st teams. At 23 years of age, he is not only the best young talent in the NBA, but one of the best players in the league.
SG – Reggie Bullock
| H: 6’6″ | W: 205lbs | Age: 31 |
| Contract: 2 yr/$20.5m | Years Pro: 9 |
Career Averages:
7.8 pts, 2.5 reb, 1.2 asts, 0.6 stls, 0.1 blks, 0.6 to, 42.7%/38.5%/84.2%, 22.5 mins
Averages Last Season:
8.6 pts, 3.5 reb, 1.2 asts, 0.6 stls, 0.2 blks, 0.6 to, 40.1%/36.0%/83.3%, 28.0 mins
2022-23 Projections:
8.3 pts, 3.2 reb, 1.3 asts, 0.6 stls, 0.2 blks, 0.6 to, 41.6%/37.2%/84.2%
A 3-point specialist early on in his career, Reggie Bullock has worked his way into becoming a valuable 5th starter/bench option for a variety of teams. Coming off the bench for the first time in 4 seasons, he worked his way into the starting line-up for the Mavericks, where he brings high volume 3-point shooting and floor spacing, allowing Doncic to attack opposition defences.
SF - Dorian Finney-Smith
| H: 6’7″ | W: 220lbs | Age: 29 |
| Contract: 3 yr/$40.2m | Years Pro: 6 |
Career Averages:
8.2 pts, 4.5 reb, 1.4 asts, 0.8 stls, 0.4 blks, 0.9 to, 44.6%/36.1%/71.8%, 27.3 mins
Averages Last Season:
11.0 pts, 4.7 reb, 1.9 asts, 1.1 stls, 0.5 blks, 1.0 to, 47.1%/39.5%/67.5%, 33.1 mins
2022-23 Projections:
10.0 pts, 4.6 reb, 1.8 asts, 0.9 stls, 0.4 blks, 0.9 to, 46.9%/39.1%/70.4%
Since he went undrafted in 2016, Dorian Finney-Smith has transformed his game from being an undersized combo forward to one of the Mavericks most important role players. The biggest improvement in his game has been his 3-point shooting (29.3% on 2.4 attempts per game in his rookie season, versus 39.5% on 5.4 attempts last season). Finney-Smith is still the combo forward he once was, but now with a more reliable jump shot and improved defensive game to take on the best opposition wing.
PF - Christian Wood
| H: 6’10” | W: 214lbs | Age: 26 |
| Contract: 1 yr/$14.3m | Years Pro: 6 |
Career Averages:
14.2 pts, 7.3 reb, 1.3 asts, 0.6 stls, 0.9 blks, 1.4 to, 51.9%/38.0%/66.8%, 23.6 mins
Averages Last Season:
17.9 pts, 10.1 reb, 2.3 asts, 0.8 stls, 1.0 blks, 1.9 to, 50.1%/39.0%/62.3%, 30.8 mins
2022-23 Projections
16.2 pts, 8.5 reb, 1.9 asts, 0.7 stls, 0.9 blks, 1.7 to, 50.9%/38.6%/64.2%
After going undrafted in 2015, Christian Wood bounced around the league, fighting for roster spots and struggling to get meaningful minutes. At the end of the 2019 and throughout the 2020 seasons, he was able to show the league what he could do – be an interior presence with an above-average 3-point shot. The Mavericks acquired him from the Houston Rockets in a trade in the off-season.
C - JaVale McGee
| H: 7’0″ | W: 270lbs | Age: 34 |
| Contract: 3 yr/$17.2m | Years Pro: 14 |
Career Averages:
8.0 pts, 5.3 reb, 0.4 asts, 0.4 stls, 1.5 blks, 1.0 to, 57.6%/18.2%/60.5%, 17.0 mins
Averages Last Season:
9.2 pts, 6.7 reb, 0.6 asts, 0.3 stls, 1.1 blks, 1.3 to, 62.9%/22.2%/69.9%, 15.8 mins
2022-23 Projections:
8.7 pts, 6.2 reb, 0.7 asts, 0.4 stls, 1.1 blks, 1.3 to, 58.5%/28.9%/68.8%
A career full of ups and downs, JaVale McGee has established himself as a per-minute monster. Often coming off the bench, McGee plays at a high level in short spurts as a rim running centre. His 7’0” frame, combined with his 7’6” wingspan, allows him to be a lob threat during pick-and-roll situations on offence, whilst being one of the more underrated shot blocking threats on defence. A great value pick-up for the Mavericks over the off-season.
Backups
G - Spencer Dinwiddie
| H: 6’5″ | W: 215lbs | Age: 29 |
| Contract: 2 yr/$36.9m | Years Pro: 8 |
Spencer Dinwiddie arrived from the Washington Wizards via trade at last season’s trade deadline. He played an important role off the bench for the Mavericks as a high-volume scorer. Perennially inefficient, he was able to cast those issues aside, shooting 49.8% from the field and 40.4% from 3-point range in 23 games with the Mavericks. He will either be the replacement for Jalen Brunson in the starting line-up, or continue as a spark plug off the bench.
G - Frank Ntilikina
| H: 6’4″ | W: 200lbs | Age: 24 |
| Contract: 1 yr/$2.0m | Years Pro: 5 |
Frank Ntilikina has never been known for his scoring. Or offense for that matter (5.2 points per game on 37.1% from the field for his career). What he provides on the defensive end is what keeps him in the NBA. With a huge wingspan of 7’1”, he can defend 1-through-4 in patches off the bench. His flexibility to play and defend multiple positions is important for the Mavericks to have coming off their bench.
F - Tim Hardaway Jr
| H: 6’5″ | W: 205lbs | Age: 30 |
| Contract: 3 yr/$53.7m | Years Pro: 9 |
Tim Hardaway Jr has always been known as a high volume 3-point shooter. Throughout his career, he shoots six 3-point attempts per game on 35.8% efficiency, mixing between starting and coming off the bench with the New York Knicks, Atlanta Hawks and Dallas Mavericks. He played 42 games last season, missing with a foot fracture.
F - Maxi Kleber
| H: 6’10” | W: 240lbs | Age: 30 |
| Contract: 4 yr/$42.0m | Years Pro: 4 |
Originally from Germany, Maxi Kleber played professionally overseas for the first 5 seasons of his career, with German and Spanish teams such as Würzburg, Obradoiro and Bayern Munich. Since signing with the Mavericks in 2017, Kleber has provided a reliable source of 3-point shooting, splitting between starting and coming off the bench.
C - Dwight Powell
| H: 6’10” | W: 240lbs | Age: 31 |
| Contract: 1 yr/$11.1m | Years Pro: 8 |
For the first time in his career, Dwight Powell started the majority of the games last season. Playing in all 82 games, he brings versatility to the Mavericks front court, with the ability to shoot a very high percentage from 2-point range (68.7% last season, 60.9% for his career) – very impressive for a unheralded starter. With the additions of Wood and McGee, Powell will most likely fall back into a reserve role.
The Rest
11. Davis Bertans (PF)
12. Josh Green (SG)
13. Jaden Hardy (SG)
14. Theo Pinson (SG/SF)
15.
T-W. Tyler Dorsey (SG)
T-W. McKinley Wright IV (PG)
Season Projections
Sports betting agencies currently have the Dallas Mavericks win totals sitting at 48.5 wins, 5th best in the Western Conference. Considering who they’re in front of (Minnesota Timberwolves and New Orleans Pelicans), it will be a lot tougher for the team to match the 52-win total from the previous season. They won’t get to the 48-win mark, but will push past .500 to be in the mix for the play-in tournament.
Conclusion
The Dallas Mavericks defied a slow start to their season, made the moves they needed to make and get themselves into form at just the right time to reach the Western Conference finals, thanks to the scoring prowess of Luka Doncic and Jalen Brunson and the support from Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith and Reggie Bullock.
It’s going to be tough for this Mavericks team to repeat the efforts of last season. Losing Brunson to the Knicks is a massive deal, considering how well he played throughout the playoffs, turning from a 6th man into a legitimate 2nd option. Regardless of whether he’ll be able to replicate this with the Knicks, the Mavericks have lost a 20-point-per-game scorer from their line-up. They’ll have to replace this scoring gap internally – Spencer Dinwiddie and Tim Hardaway Jr are starting-calibre options, while the likes of Josh Green and Jaden Hardy can step up to be important facets off the bench. It’ll be interesting to see how the Mavericks deal with their SG position.
One thing the Mavericks were successful in this off-season was improving their big man depth. Trading Christian Wood for end-of-the-bench rotation pieces and a 1st round pick gives the team a two-way starting big that can defend the interior and shoot 3’s at a very respectable rate. Adding JaVale McGee via free agency opens up another avenue of scoring – someone that is elite at defending the paint, while being a lob threat on offence. The pick-and-roll involving McGee and Doncic will definitely be fun to watch, to say the least. I can see McGee being a direct starting replacement for Dwight Powell, playing 20 high-impact minutes a night. Wood’s role is less clear. He could come off the bench and play crunch time minutes in the 4th quarter, he could also be the starting PF for this team. It may depend on how they want to match up against their opposition, whether to play big or small.
Though the upgrade in big man depth, I can’t see this team improving greatly in this coming season for a couple of reasons. As described, there have been a lot of moving parts this off-season and I don’t know how quickly the team will gel and play at the level they reached last season. Do they start Dinwiddie? Do they play Wood and McGee in the same starting line-up? How does Hardaway Jr fit back into the rotation after missing half of the season? There are so many questions that still need to be answered, and it may take some time for this team to sort them all out.
The second reason for decline is the overall improvement in the depth of Western Conference teams. Just look at some of the names to return for opposing contenders – Kawhi Leonard and Paul George with the LA Clippers, Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr with the Denver Nuggets and Anthony Davis with the LA Lakers. Even the Minnesota Timberwolves improved by picking up Rudy Gobert from the Utah Jazz. To put it simply, the Western Conference will be stacked – and the Mavericks will be each team’s target.
The question also remains, regarding the Mavericks: what can they do to improve from their 15th rank for offensive efficiency, and 6th defensively? Adding a floor spacer (Wood) and lob threat (McGee) should improve the variability of their offensive scheme, but Brunson’s iso-scoring will be missed dearly. Sometimes you just need players that know how to put the basketball in the hoop, and that’s what Brunson provided. Defensively, the additions should maintain a top 6 defensive efficiency; it could even improve, considering Wood and McGee are a definite defensive interior improvement compared to Powell.
For these reasons, I believe the Mavericks will win 44 games this season and be battling for the last automatic playoff spot. The team will struggle for continuity while they figure out the best combination of starters. While they figure out who, they know that as long as they have Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith and Maxi Kleber playing important minutes, the team will be able to figure out what to do with the rest of the roster as the season progresses. One thing is for certain though: Luka Doncic will continue to do unworldly things with a basketball, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he finally breaks through and becomes a finalist for MVP this season. For the Mavs, it could be another slow start, before they figure out their starting line-up and power their way to another playoff berth.