Welcome to IAI Sports! And welcome to the 2022-23 NBA Season!
To begin the season, we will be running through each NBA team and analysing what they’ve done throughout the off-season. Each article will start off with an introduction, telling a story of how this team is where they are at today. We quickly delve into the results of the 2021-2022 NBA season, before diving into the off-season in’s and out’s.
From there, we go into depth discussing some of the important rotation pieces for the upcoming season, before finishing with a quick analysis of a team’s win totals and a full conclusion of why this team has completed these moves, what their win total will be, and my own predictions of breakout players and what to expect from this team. It’s a season preview series with the purpose of getting you up-to-date with what has happened throughout the league.
A season preview of each of the 30 teams will be released, leading up to the beginning of the NBA season. All data and information included in these articles have been gathered from Basketball Reference, NBA.com and ESPN.
Today’s team is the Boston Celtics – the 2022 Eastern Conference champions.
***PLEASE NOTE: This article was written before the Ime Udoka season-long suspension. While there has been no changes to the roster, losing the head coach could have serious ramifications to the stability and chemistry within the squad. Therefore, the projections mentioned in this article for this Celtics team should be considered ‘best case scenario’.
Introduction
The Boston Celtics is a team that’s been building for what feels like a decade. Through the work of former General Manager Danny Ainge, the key pieces of the team today stem back to the now-infamous trade with the Brooklyn Nets. In 2013, the Celtics sent ageing superstars of their 2008 championship, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett, along with Jason Terry and DJ White, to the Nets in exchange for Gerald Wallace, Kris Humphries, Marshon Brooks, Kris Joseph, Keith Bogans, 3 unprotected 1st round picks and the right to swap another 1st round pick in 2017.
If you know any of the players the Celtics received in that trade, kudos to you. I know that Wallace and Humphries were good rotation pieces in the NBA. But we’re not here to talk about them. What’s important in this story about the Celtics is those picks. When the Celtics did trade Pierce and Garnett, they were 36 and 37 years old respectively. The Nets made a win-now move which backfired badly. Their roster ended up at the point where Pierce and Garnett were both off the team by 2015 and were out of the league by 2017. The Nets were one of the worst teams in the NBA by the 2015-16 season.
We’ll get back to the Nets’ picks in just a second. When the team loses two of the best players in franchise history, the Celtics obviously had to go through a rebuild themselves. In the 2014 NBA draft, the Celtics selected Marcus Smart 6th overall. They made a multitude of trades to gain draft capital and move off experienced players (like trading Rajon Rondo and Jeff Green in 2015). These trades also opened up opportunities for players such as Isaiah Thomas and Jae Crowder, to play extended minutes and become important pieces to the Celtics.
By the time the Nets bottomed out, the Celtics had the opportunity to select 3rd overall in the 2016 NBA draft, selecting Jaylen Brown. And because of the agreed pick-swap in 2017, the Celtics were able to acquire the 1st overall selection in the 2017 NBA draft, where they ultimately traded down to the 3rd spot and selected Jayson Tatum. Both picks were originally the Nets’ selections, but were now the Celtics thanks to that aforementioned trade. Brown and Tatum would become the faces of this historic franchise and become elite scorers in today’s NBA.
Four consecutive seasons of deep playoff runs followed for the Celtics. Teams that were led by Isaiah Thomas, Kyrie Irving and Tatum helped the Celtics win an average of 51 games across the four seasons, while making 3 Eastern Conference finals. The team just couldn’t break through, and when they finished with a 36-36 record and a 1st round exit in 2020-21, something needed to be changed.
Last Season
The Celtics knew they had the potential to be one of the best teams in the NBA. They just didn’t have the supporting pieces around Tatum, Brown and Smart to get it done. So, they first made the big decision to promote assistant Ime Udoka to the head coaching position and move long-time head coach Brad Stevens into the front office. The Celtics traded Kemba Walker and brought back former Celtics big man Al Horford. Fresh off a contract extension, they gave former lottery-pick Robert Williams III the starting centre job, pairing Horford and Williams III in the same starting front court.
Boston started off last season around .500, getting to 23-24 just after the mid-way point of the season. This would be the last time the Celtics would fall under .500 for the rest of the season. After picking up Derrick White and Daniel Theis at the trade deadline, they went on a 9-game, 5-game and 6-game winning streaks, going 28-7 in the second half of the season, and finishing the year with a 51-31 record, good enough for 2nd seed in the Eastern Conference.
The Celtics rode that wave of momentum into the playoffs. The team easily took care of the Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving-led Brooklyn Nets, winning in 4 games. They also got the job done in the 2nd round against the reigning champion Milwaukee Bucks, winning in 7 games. And fought against the 1st seeded Miami Heat to win the Eastern Conference finals in 7 games, giving them the chance to win it all. Unfortunately, they came up against the Golden State Warriors – a core full of playoff and NBA finals experience, having been to 5 NBA finals. As a result, the Celtics lost the series in 6 games. It was still a successful season, they showed why they were good enough to win the East by ranking 1st in defensive and 9th in offensive rating.
Off-Season
Ins:
JD Davison (53rd pick, NBA draft)
Malcolm Brogdon (trade with Indiana Pacers)
Danilo Gallinari (free agency, originally with Atlanta Hawks)
Blake Griffin (free agency, originally with Brooklyn Nets)
Outs:
Daniel Theis (trade to Indiana Pacers)
Aaron Nesmith (trade to Indiana Pacers)
Nik Stauskas (trade to Indiana Pacers)
Malik Fitts (trade to Indiana Pacers)
Juwan Morgan (trade to Indiana Pacers)
The Celtics core were all under contract for the upcoming 2022-23 season. All they did this off-season was shore-up their bench and bring in more starting-calibre options to provide flexibility for different line-ups. They brought in former Rookie of the Year Malcolm Brogdon in a fire sale from the Indiana Pacers and signed Danilo Gallinari once he was waived by the San Antonio Spurs.
The Celtics had to give up the end of their bench to get Brogdon to the ball club. Aaron Nesmith hadn’t quite panned out as expected and now doesn’t fit the Celtics timeline or championship aspirations. The loss of Daniel Theis will cost them depth, but as seen at last season’s trade deadline, don’t rule out the Celtics trying to bringing him back for another playoff run.
2022-23 Roster
Starting Five
PG – Marcus Smart
| H: 6’3″ | W: 220lbs | Age: 28 |
| Contract: 4 yr/$76.5m | Years Pro: 8 |
Career Averages:
10.5 pts, 3.6 reb, 4.5 asts, 1.6 stls, 0.4 blks, 1.8 to, 38.2%/32.1%/78.0%, 29.8 mins
Averages Last Season:
12.1 pts, 3.8 reb, 5.9 asts, 1.7 stls, 0.3 blks, 2.2 to, 41.8%/33.1%/79.3%, 32.3 mins
2022-23 Projections:
12.0 pts, 3.6 reb, 5.3 asts, 1.6 stls, 0.3 blks, 2.1 to, 41.2%/33.3%/79.5%
Marcus Smart is one of the best defensive guards in the NBA. A leader of this Celtics team through his defensive efforts and work ethic, he was recognised as the NBA Defensive Player of the Year last season. He has made 3 All-Defensive First teams (2019, 2020 and 2022) and has developed into a league-average 3-point shooter on offence.
SG – Jaylen Brown
| H: 6’6″ | W: 223lbs | Age: 25 |
| Contract: 2 yr/$55.2m | Years Pro: 6 |
Career Averages:
16.5 pts, 4.9 reb, 2.0 asts, 0.9 stls, 0.4 blks, 1.9 to, 47.3%/37.3%/71.2%, 28.7 mins
Averages Last Season:
23.6 pts, 6.1 reb, 3.5 asts, 1.1 stls, 0.3 blks, 2.7 to, 47.3%/35.8%/75.8%, 33.6 mins
2022-23 Projections:
21.5 pts, 5.6 reb, 3.1 asts, 1.0 stls, 0.3 blks, 2.4 to, 48.1%/37.4%/76.0%
Jaylen Brown has built himself into a legitimate 2nd scoring option on a great NBA team. He has blossomed from a potential 3-and-D wing into a high-volume scorer, which helped him attend his first All-Star game in 2021. He allows the Celtics to have at least one go-to guy at all times, partnering with Jayson Tatum to be one of the best young duos in the NBA.
SF - Jayson Tatum
| H: 6’8″ | W: 210lbs | Age: 24 |
| Contract: 3 yr/$97.7m | Years Pro: 5 |
Career Averages:
20.9 pts, 6.6 reb, 3.0 asts, 1.1 stls, 0.7 blks, 2.1 to, 45.6%/38.3%/84.4%, 33.4 mins
Averages Last Season:
26.9 pts, 8.0 reb, 4.4 asts, 1.0 stls, 0.6 blks, 2.9 to, 45.3%/35.3%/85.3%, 35.9 mins
2022-23 Projections:
25.7 pts, 7.6 reb, 4.1 asts, 1.1 stls, 0.6 blks, 2.6 to, 46.2%/37.3%/85.6%
The other half of Boston’s dynamic duo, Jayson Tatum has become a star in this league. Since leading the Celtics to an Eastern Conference finals berth back in his rookie season, he has been to 3 All-Star games (2020-2022) and led the team in scoring last season. 2022 was very good for Tatum. He made the All-NBA First team for the first time and won the Eastern Conference Finals MVP for getting the Celtics back to the NBA Finals.
PF - Al Horford
| H: 6’9″ | W: 240lbs | Age: 36 |
| Contract: 1 yr/$26.5m | Years Pro: 15 |
Career Averages:
13.7 pts, 8.2 reb, 3.3 asts, 0.8 stls, 1.2 blks, 1.5 to, 51.5%/36.0%/75.9%, 32.2 mins
Averages Last Season:
10.2 pts, 7.7 reb, 3.4 asts, 0.7 stls, 1.3 blks, 0.9 to, 46.7%/33.6%/84.2%, 29.1 mins, 69 games
2022-23 Projections:
11.6 pts, 7.6 reb, 3.6 asts, 0.8 stls, 1.2 blks, 1.1 to, 45.3%/33.7%/81.9%
After spending the previous season with the rebuilding Oklahoma City Thunder (where he played a total of 28 games), Al Horford played a key role in the Celtics getting back to the NBA Finals. He brought a veteran presence to a young team, that is a good interior defender and reliable 3-point shot. As a 5-time All-Star, he’s accomplished a lot throughout his 15-year career. All he needs to finish it off is an NBA championship.
C - Robert Williams III
| H: 6’8″ | W: 237lbs | Age: 24 |
| Contract: 4 yr/$48m | Years Pro: 4 |
Career Averages:
7.2 pts, 6.6 reb, 1.4 asts, 0.7 stls, 1.7 blks, 0.8 to, 72.8%/0.0%/66.5%, 19.9 mins
Averages Last Season:
10.0 pts, 9.6 reb, 2.0 asts, 0.9 stls, 2.2 blks, 1.0 to, 73.6%/0.0%/72.2%, 29.6 mins
2022-23 Projections:
9.1 pts, 8.1 reb, 1.9 asts, 0.8 stls, 1.9 blks, 1.0 to, 70.9%/0.0%/70.4%
A first-time starter last season, Robert Williams was crucial to the Celtics success. He doesn’t provide much shooting-wise, but is a perfect complementary piece for their go-to scorers, bringing elite rim protection (2.2 blocks per game last season, 2nd in the league) and elite finishing around the rim (73.6% from the field on 6 attempts per game last season). Look for him to continue to improve as he becomes more accustomed to his role.
Backups
G - Derrick White
| H: 6’4″ | W: 190lbs | Age: 28 |
| Contract: 3 yr/$52.8m | Years Pro: 5 |
Traded to the Celtics from the San Antonio Spurs at last season’s trade deadline, Derrick White provided a key source of floor spacing and playmaking off the bench during the Celtics playoff run. A late bloomer drafted 29th overall in 2017, he has turned into a reliable combo guard that can start or come off the bench.
G - Malcolm Brogdon
| H: 6’5″ | W: 229lbs | Age: 29 |
| Contract: 3 yr/$67.6m | Years Pro: 6 |
Malcolm Brogdon’s short career has taken many ups and downs. A former 2nd round pick, he won Rookie of the Year in 2017 and joined the 50-40-90 club in 2019. He has some very efficient seasons, as well as others where he has been a sub-32% 3-point shooter. Brogdon was traded to the Celtics from the Indiana Pacers this off-season after being struck with consistent injury issues.
G - Payton Pritchard
| H: 6’1″ | W: 195lbs | Age: 24 |
| Contract: 2 yrs/$6.2m (RC) | Years Pro: 2 |
Drafted late in the 1st round in 2020 (26th overall), Payton Pritchard has worked himself into an important member of the Celtics bench. He’s done it through his elite 3-point shooting (41.2% over his 2 seasons) and ability to run the offense with his ball-handling. Playing like a SG even while undersized (6’1”), he’s a solid bench option when the team needs a scorer.
F - Grant Williams
| H: 6’6″ | W: 236lbs | Age: 23 |
| Contract: 1 yr/$4.3m (RC) | Years Pro: 3 |
Grant Williams is another late 1st rounder the Celtics have developed over the years. He bided his time at the end of the Celtics bench, before becoming the unofficial 6th man for this team last season. If Tatum, Horford or Williams III missed time, Grant Williams slotted in as a combo forward that provided great floor spacing (41.1% from 3-point range last season).
F - Danilo Gallinari
| H: 6’10” | W: 233lbs | Age: 34 |
| Contract: 2 yr/$13.3m | Years Pro: 13 |
An experienced NBA veteran that has provided elite 3-point shooting for 5 previous teams, Danilo Gallinari arrives to the Celtics after being traded from the Atlanta Hawks, then getting waived by the San Antonio Spurs. He gives the Celtics another starting calibre forward that can space the floor. Another veteran that has yet to win an NBA championship, he will have a great opportunity to do so this season.
The Rest
11. Luke Kornet (PF/C)
12. Sam Hauser (SF)
13. Blake Griffin (PF/C)
14.
15.
T-W. JD Davison (PG)
T-W. Mfiondu Kabengele (PF/C)
Season Projections
Sports betting agencies currently have the Boston Celtics win totals sitting at 55.5 wins, the best in the Eastern Conference, and best in the NBA. The team had one of the better off-seasons in the NBA, and are the reigning Eastern Conference champions. Should they be considered the best team in the NBA? On paper, they have to be one of the top 5 teams in the league right now.
Conclusion
The Boston Celtics were only 2 games away from an NBA championship last season. How crazy is that? Who would’ve thought that adding small pieces such as Al Horford and Derrick White, switching coaches and giving young players greater opportunity (like Robert Williams III and Grant Williams) allowed this team to finally begin to realise their potential. Even more astonishing is how they flicked a switch and finished the season with a 28-7 record, particularly with team chemistry a known issue at the beginning of the season.
The moves the Celtics made were both minimal, yet impactful. Getting a guard like Malcolm Brogdon – a former Rookie of the Year with career averages of 15.5 points, 4.2 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 0.9 steals on 46.4%/37.6%/88.1% shooting for Daniel Theis, Aaron Nesmith, 3 end-of-bench players that played 15 games combined, and a 1st round pick is an absolute steal – low risk and high reward. Yes, he has injury concerns that impact his potential longevity, that’s why he was so gettable at such a low cost. But if it works out, the Celtics just got a starting-calibre guard that brings elite efficiency and playmaking. If it doesn’t pay off, all it cost was Theis, Nesmith and a 1st round pick.
The Danilo Gallinari free agency acquisition was a great pickup to add shooting and experience to the end of the bench. Unfortunately for him and the Celtics, he tore his ACL playing for Italy during the FIBA EuroBasket tournament over the summer, so he won’t be available to play at all for this upcoming season. It will be up to Brad Stevens and the front office to fill the roster with capable back-up options, to provide depth and play meaningful minutes in case the starting options also catch the injury bug.
Watch for how the Celtics start their season compared to the end. Al Horford had a wonderful comeback season, and there is no doubt he could provide the same reliable minutes as he did last season. Though we must remember he is 36 years old and on a 1-year contract. The team also brought in Brogdon, who will need time to integrate into their system, but when healthy, is too good to be coming off the bench. I wouldn’t be surprised if they start to slowly bring Horford off the bench and play a bit smaller by moving Tatum to the PF, Brown at SF and slotting Brogdon in as the SG.
What I love is how the Celtics have built this team to have so much flexibility that can run whatever line-ups they would like. Need more shooting? Bring Brogdon in and take Williams III off. Smaller defence? Swap Horford for White/Williams. The team’s versatility has improved and can match whatever team is facing them. It’ll be interesting to see what their best line-up will be and which combination of players will they put together to finish games with.
Looking at the state of the Eastern Conference, it’s a safe bet to have the Celtics being up the top again this upcoming season. The quality of their bench improved dramatically, on top of the fact that they won 28 of their last 35 games to end last season. Tatum and Brown will continue to develop into the best 1-2 scoring punches in the league, whilst being surrounded by a great supporting cast (Smart, Horford, Williams III, White, Williams and Brogdon). For these reasons, I’m predicting the Celtics to 58 games this upcoming season and be the best team in the Eastern Conference. If it all goes to plan, the team should be aiming for another NBA Finals berth.